Tropical Cyclone Discussion
126 WTPA45 PHFO 050232 TCDCP5 Hurricane Karina Discussion Number 35 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Fri Sep 04 2026 Karina no longer has an apparent eye in visible satellite images. The center of the hurricane is embedded underneath a small cold overcast from an earlier burst of inner core convection. Water vapor imagery shows Karina is moving within a very dry mid-level environment, and some dry slots are noted within the circulation. The objective satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have decreased this cycle, with D-MINT, D-PRINT, and AiDT estimates ranging from 62-71 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is slightly lowered to 70 kt. A subtropical ridge to the north of Katrina continues to steer the hurricane toward the west (280/8 kt). A mid- to upper-level trough is expected to weaken the ridge over the next couple of days, which should allow Karina to gain some latitude as it moves toward the west-northwest and northwest. Then, a more westward motion is forecast before the system is absorbed well to the north of the Hawaiian Islands by the outer circulation of Hurricane Lowell. There are no major changes to the updated track forecast, which lies slightly left of the previous prediction mainly due to a small southward adjustment to the initial position of Karina. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days as Katrina moves over marginal SSTs and encounters increasing southwesterly shear. This shear should continue to import drier air into Karina's circulation and disrupt its convective organization. The forecast shows Karina weakening to a tropical storm on Saturday and becoming a post-tropical low in 60 h. This intensity prediction remains very close to the latest multi-model consensus aids (HCCA and IVCN). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 20.7N 141.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 21.2N 142.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 21.9N 143.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 22.7N 144.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 23.2N 146.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 23.6N 148.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 08/0000Z 24.1N 150.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED