Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
852 AXNT20 KNHC 042230 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Sep 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28N, south of 20N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 08N to 12N between 27W and 30W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, south of 20N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 54W and 57W. A central Caribbean tropical wave along 71W, south of 19N, moving west at around 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N16W and continues southwestward to 07N35W to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 08N53W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 05N to 10N between 20W and 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An upper level trough is supporting scattered moderate convection over the central. A ridge dominates most of the Gulf region from east to west along 27W, supporting gentle to moderate winds. Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the waters into the middle of next week. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the Colombian low is maintaining fresh trades and 5 to 7 ft seas offshore Colombia and western Venezuela. Mainly moderate E winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the basin, except the NW Caribbean where gentle winds and slight seas are present. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over portions of central America. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trades along with moderate seas over the central Caribbean. Winds over these waters will briefly diminish this weekend, then increase to strong speeds early next week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 1014 mb low pressure is centered off northeast Florida near 30N78W, supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northern Bahamas. Additional showers and thunderstorms along with moderate winds are active along a trough reaching from 24N65W to north of Hispaniola, and near another trough southeast of Bermuda extending from 31N58W to 29N64W. 1018 mb high pressure is between these features between the northern Bahamas and Bermuda near 30N72W. Gentle breezes and 1-3 ft are noted elsewhere west of 55W. A ridge extends from the Azores to 25N55W, and this supports gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas elsewhere east of 55W. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will prevail across the area into early next week, generating a weak pressure pattern. This will support moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas across the area. A weak cold front may approach the northern waters, then stall along 31N for the first part of next week.