Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
798 AXPZ20 KNHC 042157 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Sep 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Marie is centered near 20.2N 118.6W at 04/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present within 240 nm NE and 180 nm SW semicircles. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected tonight. Dry air wrapping into Marie is maintaining the intensity at 85 kt, and slow weakening is expected over the next couple of days. Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few days and are expected to spread northward to Southern California through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Hurricane Karina is centered west of the area near 20.6N 141.1W at 04/2100 UTC, moving west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. While the center of Karina and most of the wind and wave impacts are west of 140W, winds are still reaching tropical storm strength from 20N to 22N and west of 138W, with very rough seas. Strong to near- gale force winds along with rough to very rough seas cover the surrounding area from 18N to 26N and west of 135W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed east of the center from 20N to 22N west of 138W. Karina will continue to move westward over the next several days, allowing winds and seas east of 140W to subside through late Sat. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/HFOTCPCP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/HFOTCMCP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 102W, extending from southern Mexico to 02N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 10N to 15N between 100W and 105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N105W to 10N112W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 03N to 12N and east of 95W, from 10N to 15N between 100W and 105W, and from 09N to 13N between 125W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Marie centered southwest of Baja California, Mexico. Moderate to fresh cyclonic winds and rough to very rough seas are affecting the offshore waters of Baja California not directly impacted by Hurricane Marie. The pressure gradient between this hurricane and the ridge to the north continue to sustain moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the northern and central Gulf of California. Elsewhere, primarily light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Hurricane Marie is near 20.2N 118.6W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Marie will move to 20.9N 119.4W Sat morning, 21.8N 120.5W Sat afternoon, 22.6N 121.5W Sun morning, and 23.3N 122.3W Sun afternoon. Marie will weaken to a tropical storm near 24.0N 123.3W Mon morning, then move to 24.7N 124.5W Mon afternoon. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves to 26.6N 126.7W Tue afternoon. Elsewhere, a tight pressure gradient will result in fresh S to SE winds in the N Gulf of California through tonight. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may occur by the middle of next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure located north of the islands extends southward into Central America and supports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo waters. Farther south, moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 04N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail. Strong storms are noted in the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. Gusty winds and higher seas are expected near these storms. For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient across Central America will sustain fresh E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo into early next week. Thereafter, the gradient may tighten and strong gap winds may result. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are expected in the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands into Sat. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information about Hurricane Karina centered west of 140W to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, and Hurricane Marie located southwest of Baja California, Mexico. Away from the impacts of Hurricanes Karina and Marie, moderate or weaker winds with seas 5-7 ft are prevalent the tropical eastern Pacific. An area of low pressure could form well offshore of southwestern Mexico early next week. Gradual development is possible, and the system could become a tropical depression around the middle of next week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, likely remaining well offshore of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical formation over the next 7 days.