Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
786 AXPZ20 KNHC 041614 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Sep 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Karina is centered near 20.1N 138.4W at 04/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are near 40 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 19N to 22N and west of 137W. A general WNW motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, although Karina is expected to remain a hurricane during the next day or two. Hurricane Marie is centered near 20.1N 117.9W at 04/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 41 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 15N to 23N between 111W and 120W. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected within the next couple of days. Some strengthening is possible today, but a slow weakening trend is expected to begin on Saturday. Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few days and are expected to spread northward to Southern California through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 98W, extending from southern Mexico to 02N, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough from 10N85W to 08N100W to 12N110W, and from 11N120W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 03N to 14N and east of 105W, and from 09N to 13N between 125W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Marie centered southwest of Baja California, Mexico. Moderate to fresh cyclonic winds and rough to very rough seas are affecting the offshore waters of Baja California not directly impacted by Hurricane Marie. The pressure gradient between this hurricane and the ridge to the north continue to sustain moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the northern and central Gulf of California. Elsewhere, primarily light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Hurricane Marie is near 20.1N 117.9W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Marie will move to 20.7N 119.0W this evening, 21.5N 120.1W Sat morning, 22.3N 121.0W Sat evening, 23.2N 122.0W Sun morning, 23.9N 122.8W Sun evening, and weaken to a tropical storm near 24.5N 123.9W Mon morning. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves to 25.9N 126.2W early Tue. Elsewhere, a tight pressure gradient will result in fresh S to SE winds in the N Gulf of California through tonight. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may occur by the middle of next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure located north of the islands extends southward into Central America and supports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo waters. Farther south, moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 04N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail. Strong storms are noted in the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. Gusty winds and higher seas are expected near these storms. For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient across Central America will sustain fresh E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo into early next week. Thereafter, the gradient may tighten and strong gap winds may result. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are expected in the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands into Sat. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information about Hurricane Karina centered well east of Hawaii, and Hurricane Marie located southwest of Baja California, Mexico. Away from the impacts of Hurricanes Karina and Marie, moderate or weaker winds with seas 5-7 ft are prevalent the tropical eastern Pacific. For the forecast, Hurricane Karina is near 20.4N 140.4W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving west at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Karina will move to 20.7N 141.4W this evening, 21.4N 142.8W Sat morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 22.0N 143.7W Sat evening, 22.8N 144.8W Sun morning, 23.4N 146.1W Sun evening, and become post-tropical and move to 23.9N 148.0W Mon morning. Karina will dissipate early Tue. Elsewhere, an area of low pressure could form well offshore of southwestern Mexico early next week. Gradual development is possible, and the system could become a tropical depression around the middle of next week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, likely remaining well offshore of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical formation over the next 7 days.