Tropical Cyclone Discussion
825 WTPZ43 KNHC 040256 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 03 2026 The convective state of Marie has improved slightly over the past 6 hours, with less evidence of the dry slotting that was observed earlier. The center is embedded underneath the large convective canopy. A recent SSMIS pass was helpful in estimating the center position. The latest TAFB estimate remains T4.5/77 kt while the objective intensity estimates have increased slightly to the 80-87 kt range. The initial intensity is raised to 85 kt as the satellite presentation has improved since the time of the TAFB Dvorak fix. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 295/8 kt. A slightly slower motion in the same direction is expected over the next few days as Marie moves closer to a mid-level ridge located to its north. In about 4 days, a mid- to upper-level trough approaching the west coast of the United States may induce a gradual turn toward the northwest. Some of the model guidance has shifted to the right in the long-range forecast over the past couple of cycles, and the NHC forecast is shifted accordingly to the right (north) of the previous track at days 3-5. The NHC forecast is just a bit to the southwest of the latest HCCA and GDMI models at those time ranges. It should be noted that the spread in the track guidance remains large at days 4 and 5, and confidence in the track forecast is below average at those time ranges. The vertical wind shear is expected to remain low along Marie's path for the next 4 days. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and atmospheric moisture will still remain favorable enough for some slight additional intensification to be possible through tonight. Thereafter, SSTs and moisture will gradually decrease along Marie's track for the remainder of the forecast period. This will lead to gradual weakening beginning on Saturday. Very little change was made to the first 2 days of the intensity forecast, during which time the forecast is near the higher end of the intensity guidance. A slightly faster rate of weakening is shown at days 4 and 5, and this portion of the forecast lies closer to the middle of the guidance envelope. The NHC forecast shows the cyclone still hanging onto tropical storm status at day 5 as it remains well offshore of the Baja California Peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 19.6N 116.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 20.0N 117.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 20.7N 118.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 21.5N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 22.2N 121.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 22.9N 121.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 23.5N 123.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 24.5N 126.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 26.4N 128.5W 40 KT 45 MPH