Tropical Cyclone Discussion
701 WTPZ41 KNHC 040246 TCDEP1 Hurricane Karina Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026 500 PM HST Thu Sep 03 2026 Karina continues to chug along as a strong hurricane, with a well-established eye, despite dry air intrusion beginning to wrap into the system. The latest subjective Dvorak analysis from TAFB remains unchanged at a T5.0/90 kt, which compliments the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranging from 87-90 kt. Given the above, the initial intensity estimate remains unaltered at 90 kt. The hurricane's initial motion has shifted northerly, now heading west-northwestward at 285/9 kt. Ridging to the north of the system has become eroded by an upper-level trough, which is expected to cause a turn to the northwest later this evening. The latest NHC forecast closely follows the Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean, and is quite similar to the previous forecast. In about 3 days, Karina's proximity to Hurricane Lowell may also help induce a turn back toward the west-northwest. Despite this more westward turn, Karina is not expected to be a threat to the Hawaiian Islands. The latest SHIPS guidance depicts Karina will begin moving into an unfavorable environment over the next 12-24 h, showing an increase in vertical wind shear, cooling SSTs, and a steady desiccation. These factors will cause Karina to weaken over the weekend, with the forecast calling for the system to become post-tropical by Monday and dissipating shortly thereafter. The official NHC intensity forecast was largely unchanged from the previous advisory, aligning closely with the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 20.1N 138.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 20.4N 139.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 20.9N 141.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 21.5N 142.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 22.2N 143.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 22.9N 144.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 23.6N 146.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 24.9N 150.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED