Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
454 AXNT20 KNHC 032222 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Sep 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 21W south of 20N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 16N, E of 22W. A tropical wave is along 48W, south of 20N, moving W at around 15 kt. Convection previously associated with this wave has diminished this evening. A tropical wave is along 63W, south of 21N, moving west at around 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N29W and then to 11N46W. The ITCZ extends from 10N50W to 08N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 22W and 35W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered moderate convection is focused within 30 nm on either side of a pair of surface trough axes, one of which is oriented just offshore Florida from near Apalachicola to Tampa Bay and another extending southeast from just west of the mouth of the Mississippi River to 27N89W. Winds blow toward lower pressure over Texas have increased to moderate to fresh offshore NE Mexico and within 90 nm of the Texas coast, and moderate to fresh NE winds have developed offshore the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal surface trough is forming just inland. Otherwise, light to gentle winds prevail outside of convection. Seas are 3 ft or less. For the forecast, a diurnal trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon supporting locally fresh easterly winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche through the forecast period. Elsewhere, weak high pressure prevails and will generally allow for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas through the next few days. The presence of abundant tropical moisture will favor scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly in the eastern Gulf through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the Colombian low is maintaining fresh to strong trades and 5 to 8 ft seas offshore Colombia and western Venezuela. Mainly moderate E winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the basin, except the NW Caribbean where gentle winds and slight seas are present. Scattered moderate convection is noted offshore Costa Rica and Panama, in associated with the eastern extension of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressure in northern South America will maintain fresh to pulsing strong trades along with moderate seas over the central Caribbean, and over the western portion of the eastern Caribbean through Sat night. These trades are forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds while expanding in coverage over the south- central portion of the basin on Mon. Winds reaching near gale are expected Tue night near Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to pulsing strong east winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night and Tue night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will continue across the remainder of the basin during the period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extending offshore Florida is inducing scattered moderate convection over and north of the northwest Bahamas. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a ridge, with the main high pressure center of 1023 mb located NE of the Azores. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas prevail across much of the Atlantic S of 25N and away from any convection or tropical waves. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the waters W of about 73W through the end of the week as a mid-level low and surface trough gradually shift westward while at the same time abundant tropical moisture remains in place. A cold front will then approach from the NW late this weekend enhancing the potential for scattered and thunderstorms over the NW portion of the area. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are over the waters west of 74W. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge will provide for generally moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas over the forecast waters.