Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
149 AXPZ20 KNHC 032105 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Sep 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Karina is centered near 19.8N 137.6W at 03/2100 UTC, moving west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are near 40 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 18N to 22N between 135W and 139W. A more WNW motion is expected over the next couple of days. Karina is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days. However, Karina is expected to remain a hurricane for the next couple of days. Hurricane Marie is centered near 19.3N 115.5W at 03/2100 UTC, moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are near 38 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 15N to 23N between 108W and 117W. A more WNW motion is expected through this weekend. Some strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening this weekend. Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few days and will likely spread northward to southern California over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 97W, extending from Oaxaca to 05N, moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted N of 08N between 88W and 98W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough exits the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W and extends to 08N97W and to 11N110W and then from 12N120W to 12N132W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is north of 02N and east of 85W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 03N to 14N between 100W and 110W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Marie centered southwest of Baja California, Mexico. Away from the impacts of Hurricane Marie, the pressure gradient between a ridge north of the area and the hurricane sustain fresh northerly winds and moderate seas across the offshore waters of Baja California. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted in the northern and central Gulf of California. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are evident in the offshore waters of Mexico. For the forecast, Hurricane Marie is near 19.3N 115.5W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Marie will move to 19.6N 116.6W Fri morning, 20.2N 117.9W Fri afternoon, 20.9N 119.2W Sat morning, 21.7N 120.3W Sat afternoon, 22.4N 121.3W Sun morning, and 22.8N 122.5W Sun afternoon. Marie will weaken to a tropical storm well west of Baja California Mon afternoon. Elsewhere, a tight pressure gradient will result in fresh S to SE winds in the N Gulf of California into Fri night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient extends across the basin supporting moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas. The exception near the Gulf of Papagayo, where fresh gap winds are ongoing. For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient across Central America will sustain fresh E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo into early next week. Thereafter, the gradient may tighten and strong gap winds may result. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are expected in the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands into Sat. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information about Hurricane Karina centered over a 1000 miles east of Hawaii, and Hurricane Marie located southwest of Baja California, Mexico. Aside from the impacts of Hurricanes Karina and Marie, moderate or weaker winds with seas 5-7 ft dominate the tropical NE Pacific. For the forecast, Hurricane Karina is near 19.8N 137.6W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving west at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 969 mb. Karina will move to 20.1N 139.0W Fri morning, 20.5N 140.7W Fri afternoon, 21.0N 142.1W Sat morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.8N 143.3W Sat afternoon, 22.5N 144.2W Sun morning, and 23.3N 145.5W Sun afternoon. Karina will become post-tropical as it moves further into the Central Pacific basin Mon afternoon. Elsewhere, an area of low pressure could form well offshore of southwestern Mexico early next week. Gradual development is possible, and the system could become a tropical depression around the middle fo next week while it moves west-northwestward at around 10 kt, likely remaining well offshore of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical formation over the next 7 days.