Tropical Cyclone Discussion
613 WTPZ43 KNHC 032043 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 03 2026 The convection surrounding the center of Hurricane Marie has fluctuated today, with some mid-level dry air now appearing to wrap around its center. An earlier WSFM microwave pass depicted a compact center of circulation, but north-northeasterly wind shear has resulted in less-definition immediately north and east of the core. The latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was 4.5/77 kt, while objective intensity estimates have decreased a little from this morning, and currently range from 66-81 kt. Recent wind observations from the Mexican Navy Weather Station on Clarion Island indicated sustained winds near 55 kt with a peak wind gust of 76 kt. Based on these observations and the available intensity estimates, the initial intensity is maintained at 80 kt for this advisory package. Marie is moving westward at 280/8 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected during the next 48-72 h as a ridge of high pressure prevails to the northwest of the cyclone. Considerable spread persists within the track guidance beyond 72 h, largely due to differences in how a trough approaching the western United States will influence the strength and position of the aforementioned ridge. A stronger system moving into the western U.S. would erode the ridge more substantially, resulting in a more northward track, while a weaker system would allow the ridge to remain stronger and favor a more west-northwestward track. Little change was made to the track forecast through 72 h. Beyond that time, the forecast was shifted to the right of the previous track forecast and is now closer to the middle of the track guidance. Confidence in the track forecast remains lower than normal. Decreasing wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures of 28-29 C and sufficiently moist mid-level air should support some strengthening over the next day or so. It is worth noting that the ECMWF and GFS SHIPS guidance maintain a small potential for rapid intensification during this period, and because of this, the official NHC intensity forecast remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope. The rate at which Marie weakens will be highly dependent on its eventual track. A more northward track would allow the hurricane to remain in slightly warmer waters for a longer period, while a more west-northwestward track would bring Marie over cooler waters and likely lead to faster weakening. The official forecast calls for slow weakening during the second half of the weekend, followed by more steady weakening early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 19.3N 115.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 19.6N 116.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 20.2N 117.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 20.9N 119.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 21.7N 120.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 22.4N 121.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 22.8N 122.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 23.6N 125.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 25.0N 128.7W 50 KT 60 MPH