Tropical Cyclone Discussion
354 WTPA44 PHFO 032037 TCDCP4 Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 30 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Thu Sep 03 2026 The cloud pattern of Lowell suggests the hurricane is contending with some easterly shear. Upper-level outflow is limited on the eastern side of Lowell, and satellite images today have shown evidence of some dry air intrusions into the circulation. An 89-GHz AMSR3 passive microwave image received just after the previous advisory indicated an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) was underway, with a larger outer eyewall surrounding a weaker inner one. This is consistent with the larger eye now observed in recent visible images of the hurricane. Lowell remains a formidable major hurricane, and the latest Dvorak CI numbers along with recent D-PRINT and SATCON estimates support holding a 120-kt intensity. Lowell is moving over very warm waters with high oceanic heat content, and the environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable for Lowell to maintain its intensity or strengthen slightly during the next several days. Although it has experienced a bit more easterly shear than expected today, the hurricane has been resilient. In general, the intensity guidance shows little appreciable change in intensity during the next few days, with small fluctuations likely to occur related to internal dynamic processes with limited predictability, such as future ERCs. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast maintains Lowell as a major hurricane with no net change through 72 h. By days 4-5, some weakening is predicted as southwesterly vertical wind shear increases over Lowell. However, it is still forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when making its closest approach to the Hawaiian Islands. The hurricane continues moving westward (275/9 kt) to the south of a mid-level ridge over the Central Pacific. A gradually slower westward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Then, a mid- to upper-level trough over the northern Pacific is forecast to dig southward and erode the steering ridge. As a result, Lowell is predicted to turn sharply toward the north or north-northeast this weekend, and then accelerate northward early next week. This track should bring the center of Lowell near or just west of the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late Monday into early Tuesday. There is less spread noted in the track guidance envelope at days 3-5, and the NHC forecast remains between the simple (TVCN) and corrected (HCCA) consensus aids. However, the long-range track details are of lower confidence, and residents in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the latest NHC forecast updates. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Lowell could be at or near major hurricane strength when it moves near the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday night. While it is still too soon to determine the exact track of the hurricane, Lowell could bring storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts to portions of Hawaii early next week. 2. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the progress of Lowell through the upcoming Labor Day weekend, listen to the advice of local officials, and ensure they have their hurricane plan and supply kit in place. 3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands during the next several days. These swells are likely to increase early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 13.6N 158.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 13.6N 159.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 13.7N 160.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 13.7N 161.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 14.0N 162.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 14.5N 163.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 15.5N 163.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 19.0N 162.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 24.5N 162.0W 95 KT 110 MPH