Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
181 AXNT20 KNHC 031702 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Sep 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 20W south of 20N. Scattered moderate convection is noted behind the wave from 10N to 17N and E of 20W, and also from 03N to 12N between 20W and 35W. A tropical wave is along 47W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N to 18N between 43W and 50W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are from 15N to 20N between 44W and 50W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 61/62W south of 21N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave is interacting with an upper- level trough to its west, and producing scattered moderate convection from 20N to 25N between 57W and 65W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N27W and then to 11N46W. The ITCZ extends from 10N48W to 08N59W. The convection in the vicinity of the boundaries is associated with the tropical waves described above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered moderate convection continues along a developing surface trough in the northeastern Gulf. Scattered showers are also ongoing near a surface trouhg extending from the Bay of Campeche into the south-central Gulf. Outside of convection, surface ridging maintains gentle to moderate or weaker winds and slight seas across the Gulf. For the forecast, weak high pressure prevails over the region and will generally allow for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across the Gulf through the next few days. The presence of abundant tropical moisture will favor scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly in the eastern Gulf through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between ridging over the Atlantic and the Colombia Low maintains fresh to strong E winds and 5-8 ft seas offshore NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades and 2-5 ft seas prevail from the remainder of the E and central Caribbean to the SW basin as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail elsewhere. Convergent surface winds are leading to scattered moderate convection occurring over the waters between Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressure in northern South America will maintain fresh to pulsing strong trades along with moderate seas over the central Caribbean, and over the western portion of the eastern Caribbean through Sat night. These trades are forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds while expanding in coverage over the south- central portion of the basin on Sun. Winds reaching near gale are expected Mon night and Tue night near Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to pulsing strong east winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night and Tue night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will continue across the remainder of the basin during the period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends over the western Bahamas, and is generating some shower and thunderstorm activity over much of the Bahamas and the regional waters. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a ridge, with the main high pressure center of 1025 mb located NE of the Azores. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas prevail across much of the Atlantic S of 25N and away from any convection or tropical waves. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the waters W of about 70W through the end of the week as a mid-level low and surface trough gradually shift westward while at the same time abundant tropical moisture remains in place. A cold front will then approach from the NW late this weekend enhancing the potential for scattered and thunderstorms over the NW portion of the area. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are over the waters south of about 29N between 70W and 79W. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge will provide for generally moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas over the forecast waters.