Tropical Cyclone Discussion
952 WTPZ43 KNHC 031449 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026 800 AM MST Thu Sep 03 2026 The structure of Marie has improved this morning. First-light visible satellite imagery shows convection becoming increasingly symmetric around the hurricane's center, with colder cloud tops wrapping nearly completely around the core. The latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was 4.5/77 kt, while objective intensity estimates range from 68-83 kt. Given the improved satellite presentation and upward trend in intensity estimates, the initial intensity has been set at 80 kt for this advisory. Marie is moving west-northwestward around 9 kt, guided by a mid-level ridge to its northwest. This general motion is expected to continue over the next 2-3 days. By late this weekend into next week, however, considerable spread develops in the track guidance as the aforementioned ridge weakens and an upper-level low approaches the West Coast of the United States. The strength of this low could have a significant influence on Marie's long-range track. A stronger system moving into the western U.S. would erode the ridge more substantially and result in a more northward track, while a weaker system would allow the ridge to remain stronger and keep Marie on a more west-northwestward heading. Given these uncertainties, confidence in the track forecast is somewhat lower than normal. The latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous track and remains very close to the Google Deep Mind and HCCA solutions through 60 h. Thereafter, the forecast has been nudged to the right of the previous track through the remainder of the forecast period. The hurricane is moving through warm waters around 28-29 C in an environment with low wind shear, moist mid-level air and favorable upper-level divergence. These conditions are expected to persist over the next 24-36 h, and Marie is forecast to gradually strengthen. It is worth noting that the ECMWF and GFS SHIPS guidance indicate a small potential for rapid intensification during this period, and because of this, the official NHC forecast intensity remains near the top of the guidance envelope. The medium- to long-range intensity forecast will depend strongly on Marie's track. A more northward track would allow the hurricane to remain in slightly warmer waters for a longer period, while a more west-northwestward track would bring Marie over cooler waters and likely result in a faster rate of weakening. The official NHC intensity forecast calls for Marie to begin slowly weakening this weekend as increasing mid-level dry air wraps around the hurricane, with a more steady rate of weakening expected early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 19.2N 114.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 19.5N 116.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 20.0N 117.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 20.7N 118.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 21.4N 119.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 22.2N 121.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 22.6N 122.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 23.3N 125.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 24.1N 128.5W 55 KT 65 MPH