Tropical Cyclone Discussion
615 WTPZ41 KNHC 031437 TCDEP1 Hurricane Karina Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026 500 AM HST Thu Sep 03 2026 Little has changed in Karina's annular appearance over the last several hours. The latest subjective Dvorak analysis from TAFB gave an intensity estimate of 102 kt, while objective estimates from CIMSS ranged from 90-95 kt. Given the continued downward trend across subjective and objective Dvorak analysis, the initial intensity estimate was set at 100 kt. Karina's initial motion was set at 280/9 kt. The system is forecast to shift more west-northwest over the next couple of days, as it continues to be guided by a subtropical ridge to its north. By late this weekend into early next week, an oncoming upper-level trough is expected to pull Karina more to the northwest, away from the main Hawaiian Islands. The official track forecast was little changed from the previous advisory, with only slight adjustments westward to reflect a blend of HCCA, GDMI, and the previous official track forecast. A steady weakening trend in Karina's intensity is still expected to occur as the system encounters an increasingly drier mid-level environment. After 24 h, Karina's weakening trend is forecast to hasten as vertical wind shear increases and SSTs decrease, with the system expected to become post-tropical by Day 4. The official intensity forecast increases the rate of weakening compared to the previous advisory, falling just above most model guidance within the first 24 h before landing closer to guidance consensus thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 19.8N 136.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 20.1N 138.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 20.6N 139.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 21.0N 141.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 21.6N 142.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 22.3N 143.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 23.2N 144.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 24.5N 147.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED