Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
343 AXNT20 KNHC 022249 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Thu Sep 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An central Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W, south of 21N, moving westward around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 13N-16N between 38W-43W. A well-defined tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 59W, south of 23N, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. The wave is interacting with an upper-level trough to its west, and producing scattered moderate convection from 19N-23N between 55W-60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from coastal Mauritania near 17N17W and continues southwestward to 10N48W. The ITCZ extends from 10N48W to 10N56W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 06N-10N between 15W-33W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak 1018 mb high centered over the N central Gulf near 29N88W is leading toward gentle winds across the entire Gulf today. Isolated moderate convection is occurring from 24N-27N east of 87W due to an upper-level low. For the forecast, weak high pressure in place over the region will generally allow for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across the Gulf through the next few days. The presence of abundant tropical moisture will favor scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly in the eastern Gulf through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient from the Bermuda High north of the area to a 1010 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to locally strong trades only in the S central Caribbean with seas 5-6 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 1-4 ft. A surface trough extends from central Cuba to near 20N80W with isolated showers and thunderstorms near the trough and over E Cuba. For the forecast, he trough will continue moving WNW through Thu night while becoming diffuse. Elsewhere across the basin, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will maintain mostly fresh trades along with moderate seas over the central Caribbean, and over the western portion of the eastern Caribbean through Sat night. These trades are forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds while expanding in coverage over the south-central portion of the basin beginning Sun. Winds reaching near gale are expected Mon night and Tue night near Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong east winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night and Mon night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will continue across the remainder of the basin during the period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The pressure gradient between a weak 1019 mb Bermuda High at 33N72W and lower pressure over the ITCZ and monsoon trough is forcing only moderate to locally fresh trades with seas 3-6 ft. The only exceptions are fresh to locally strong NE winds with seas 6-8 ft off of the coast of Western Sahara and the Canary Islands. In addition to the convection noted over the Atlantic due to the two tropical waves, a surface trough interacting with an upper-level low is forcing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 25N-30N between 74W-79W. For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the waters W of about 70W through the rest of the week as a mid-level low and surface trough gradually shift westward while at the same time abundant tropical moisture remains in place. A cold front will then approach from the NW Sat through Sun night enhancing the potential for scattered and thunderstorms over the NW portion of the area. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are over the waters south of about 27N between 70W and 77W. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge will provide for generally moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas over the forecast waters.