Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
823 AXPZ20 KNHC 022125 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Sep 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Karina is centered near 18.9N 133.8W at 02/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Peak seas are around 42 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 18N-21N between 133W-136W. A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A slow weakening trend is forecast the next few days, followed by a more steady rate of weakening. Karina is likely to remain a hurricane the next couple of days. Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 18.0N 112.5W at 02/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are around 30 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 12N-19N between 108W-115W. The NW motion should continue through tonight followed by a turn more west-northwestward for the next several days. Additional strengthening is forecast through Friday, and Marie is likely to become a hurricane tonight. Gradual weakening is anticipated to begin by this weekend. Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few days and will likely spread northward to southern California over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 92W, extending across SE Mexico to 07N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 06N east of 93W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough exits the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W and extends to 09N106W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 06N east of 93W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong is also occurring from 05N-12N between 115W-133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Marie centered southwest of Mexico. Aside from Marie, winds are NW fresh offshore of Baja California Norte with seas 5-6 ft as well as SE fresh winds over the N Gulf of California with seas 2-4 ft. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft over Pacific waters and 1-4 ft over the central and S Gulf of California. For the forecast, Marie will strengthen to a hurricane near 18.7N 113.5W Thu morning, move to 19.5N 115.0W Thu afternoon, 20.2N 116.5W Fri morning, 20.8N 117.8W Fri afternoon, 21.5N 119.1W Sat morning, and 22.1N 120.3W Sat afternoon. Marie will weaken to a tropical storm over 23.5N 122.5W Sun afternoon. Elsewhere, a tighter pressure gradient will result in fresh to strong S to SE winds in the N Gulf of California through Fri night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4-6 ft are present across the forecast waters this afternoon. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 06N east of 93W. For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient across Central America will sustain moderate to locally fresh strong E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo through the next several days. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds will prevail across forecast waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Hurricane Karina centered between Mexico and Hawaii, and Tropical Storm Marie located southwest of Mexico. Aside from the impacts of Hurricane Karina and Tropical Storm Marie, moderate or weaker winds with seas 5-7 ft dominate the tropical NE Pacific. Otherwise, a small area of cross equatorial swell from the southwest is noted well west of the Galapagos Islands producing seas to 8 ft. For the forecast, Karina will move to 19.3N 135.2W Thu morning, 19.8N 137.2W Thu afternoon, 20.2N 139.0W Fri morning, and move west of our forecast waters Fri afternoonn. Marie will strengthen to a hurricane near 18.7N 113.5W Thu morning, move to 19.5N 115.0W Thu afternoon, 20.2N 116.5W Fri morning, 20.8N 117.8W Fri afternoon, 21.5N 119.1W Sat morning, and 22.1N 120.3W Sat afternoon. Marie will weaken to a tropical storm over 23.5N 122.5W Sun afternoon. Elsewhere, the cross equatorial SW swell will diminish below 8 ft by tomorrow. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form well offshore of southwestern Mexico over the weekend. Gradual development is possible during the early to middle part of next week as the system moves west-northwestward around 10 kt and is likely to remain well offshore of Mexico.