Tropical Cyclone Discussion
356 WTPA44 PHFO 022033 TCDCP4 Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 26 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Wed Sep 02 2026 Lowell has continued to rapidly intensify over the Central Pacific today. The compact hurricane has maintained a very warm, circular eye with a diameter of 15 n mi for the past several hours. A symmetric ring of very deep convection surrounds the eye with cold cloud tops of -70 to -75 deg C. The subjective Dvorak and objective UW-CIMSS estimates have risen since the prior advisory, with a T7.0/140 kt classification from JTWC along with recent AiDT and D-PRINT estimates around 140 kt. Based on these developments, Lowell has become a Category 5 hurricane with an initial intensity of 140 kt. A NOAA aircraft research mission is scheduled to collect data in Lowell later today. Since the hurricane is moving over a region of very high oceanic heat content in a low shear environment, further near-term intensification remains possible. An eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) would be expected to commence in the near future, but the latest available passive microwave images did not suggest an ERC is underway. These favorable environmental and oceanic conditions are expected to persist for the next several days, meaning that Lowell is likely to remain a major hurricane while internal dynamic processes like ERCs modulate its intensity fluctuations. The NHC intensity forecast remains on the high side of the latest guidance and follows the multi-model consensus aids, trending closer to IVCN later in the period. There is high confidence that Lowell will remain a major hurricane through the weekend. Lowell is moving just south of due west (265/9 kt). This motion is expected to continue with a gradually slower forward speed during the next few days as Lowell moves to the south of a mid-level ridge over the Central Pacific. A cutoff mid- to upper-level low is forecast to drop southwestward from the North Pacific and weaken the steering ridge this weekend. Then, a sharp turn toward the north or north-northeast is forecast at days 4-5 while Lowell interacts with this upper-level feature. There is large spread in the various models and ensemble solutions regarding how sharp of a turn occurs, but once again the overall trend has been an eastward shift in the long-range track envelope. Thus, the updated NHC track forecast was adjusted to the right of the previous prediction at 96-120 h. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Lowell. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 13.3N 154.3W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 13.4N 155.6W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 13.5N 157.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 13.6N 158.9W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 13.7N 160.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 13.8N 161.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 14.1N 162.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 15.1N 163.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 17.4N 163.2W 110 KT 125 MPH