Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
369 AXNT20 KNHC 021700 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Sep 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, south of 21N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 07N to 15N between 34W and 41W. A well-defined tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 56W, south of 23N, moving westward at around 15 kt. The wave is interacting with an upper level trough to it's west, and producing scattered to numerous moderate convection from 17N to 23N between 52W and 57W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18.5N16W and continues southwestward to 09N46W. The ITCZ extends from 09N46W to 10N53W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 05N to 08N and west of 23.5W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered moderate convection associated with Tropical Depression Edouard continue to affect the water north of 28.5N between 92W and 95. Scattered moderate convection is also present over the eastern Gulf in association to an upper level trough. In the wake of Tropical Depression Edouard, which continues to move inland, a weak pressure gradient prevails across the basin. Moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and slight seas are noted over most of the Gulf waters. For the forecast, the relatively weak high pressure over the region will generally allow for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across the Gulf for the next few days. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low from the Cayman Islands to NW Cuba continues to combine with ample low level moisture moving in from the southeast to produce lingering scattered showers and thunderstorms over Cuba, western Haiti and the surrounding waters between the Bahamas and Jamaica. A surface trough extends from central Cuba to near 18N80W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms also prevail across SW portions and into the coastal waters of NE Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. Weak Bermuda High pressure north of the basin is promoting a modest pressure gradient to the south, and yielding moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across the central and east-central Caribbean between 64W and 80W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across these waters. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the aforementioned trough will continue moving WNW through Fri. Elsewhere across the basin, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trades along with moderate seas over the central and eastern Caribbean through the next few days, while moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas remain over the remainder of the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A low to middle level trough extends from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and the SE Florida coastal waters. Meanwhile, another low level trough is moving across eastern Cuba and the SE Bahamas, with abundant low level moisture behind it. These features are combining to produce scattered moderate isolated strong convection from the NW Bahamas to just SW of Bermuda, and across the coastal waters of NE and central Cuba, that is being sustained by divergent flow aloft associated with an upper level low over the Florida Panhandle. Scattered moderate convection also continues across the near and offshore waters of Florida W of 78W. Moderate SE surface winds generally prevail south of 27N between 70W and 76W along with seas 4 to 6 ft. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge centered south of the Azores, anchored on a 1027 mb high near 36N29W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found S of 24N between 22W and 58W. Meanwhile, fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are present north of 19N and east of 22W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere N of 25N. For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the waters W of about 70W through the rest of the week as an upper low gradually shifts westward while abundant tropical moisture remains in place. A cold front will then approach from the NW Sat through Sun night enhancing the potential for scattered and thunderstorms over the NW portion of the area. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are over the waters south of about 27N between 70W and 77W. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge will provide for generally moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas over the forecast waters.