Tropical Cyclone Discussion
192 WTPA44 PHFO 021449 TCDCP4 Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 25 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Wed Sep 02 2026 The rapid intensification of Lowell has continued early this morning. The compact hurricane has a circular, 15 n-mi-wide eye surrounded by a symmetric ring of deep convection with cloud tops as cold as -70 to -80 deg C. This impressive structure has led to an increase in the satellite intensity estimates, with JTWC and HFO recently providing T6.5/127 kt Dvorak estimates. Meanwhile, the latest AiDT and D-MINT objective estimates from CIMSS have climbed above 130 kt. Since the satellite presentation continues to improve and the eye of Lowell has warmed during the past couple of hours, the initial intensity is raised to 135 kt. Lowell will move within conducive large-scale environmental and oceanic conditions for the next several days. With no signs yet of the commencement of an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), some additional near-term strengthening is forecast, and Lowell could reach category 5 intensity later today or tonight. Over the next several days, the intensity of the hurricane will be modulated by internal dynamic processes like ERCs. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and remains on the high side of the latest guidance. There is high confidence that Lowell will remain a major hurricane through the forecast period. The hurricane is moving westward (270/9 kt). A mid-level ridge over the Central Pacific should steer Lowell westward for the next few days at a gradually slower forward speed. Only minor southward adjustments were made to the early part of the NHC forecast to account for current motion trends. An erosion of the steering ridge by a mid- to upper-level trough or cutoff low is forecast this weekend, which should cause Lowell to slow down further and turn sharply northward at days 4-5. The track guidance has shifted eastward for this portion of the forecast, and the NHC prediction was adjusted to the right of the previous track in response. There remains large model spread and above average uncertainty regarding the details of this anticipated northward turn, so interests in Hawaii should monitor the latest forecast updates. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Lowell. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 13.4N 153.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 13.5N 154.7W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 13.6N 156.6W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 13.8N 158.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 13.9N 159.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 13.9N 161.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 14.0N 162.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 14.6N 164.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 16.5N 164.0W 120 KT 140 MPH