Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
225 AXPZ20 KNHC 020937 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Sep 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Karina is centered near 18.5N 131.7W at 02/0900 UTC, moving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Peak seas are around 42 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 16N to 21N between 129W and 134W. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible through Wednesday morning, followed by slow weakening over the next several days. However, Karina is likely to remain a major hurricane into Thursday. Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 16.7N 111.0W at 02/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are around 28 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 09N to 21N between 105W and 116W. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Marie is likely to become a hurricane later today. Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few days and will likely spread northward to southern California over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 90W, extending across Guatemala to 07N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present from 03N to 16N between 87W and 97W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 08N92W to 10N101W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present from 01N to 12N between 118W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Marie centered SW of Mexico. Tropical Storm Marie is near 16.7N 111.0W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Aside from the impacts of Tropical Storm Marie, a weak pressure gradient across the offshore waters of Baja California sustains moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. A slightly tighter pressure gradient in the northern Gulf of California is allowing for locally fresh southerly winds and slight seas. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Marie will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.5N 112.1W this afternoon, move to 18.4N 113.6W Thu morning, 19.1N 115.1W Thu afternoon, 19.7N 116.6W Fri morning, 20.2N 118.0W Fri afternoon, and 20.8N 119.3W Sat morning. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves near 22.1N 121.8W early Sun. Elsewhere, a tighter pressure gradient will result in fresh to locally strong southerly winds and moderate seas in the northern Gulf of California through Fri night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the area supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas in the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending outward to 88W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean will sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo through the workweek. Winds may pulse to strong speeds at night late this week into the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Hurricane Karina centered between Mexico and Hawaii, and Tropical Storm Marie located southwest of Mexico. Tropical Storm Marie is near 16.7N 111.0W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Hurricane Karina is near 18.5N 131.7W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 940 mb. Aside from the impacts of Hurricane Karina and Tropical Storm Marie, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas dominate the tropical eastern Pacific. Otherwise, a small area of cross equatorial swell is noted W of the Galapagos Islands producing seas to 8 ft. For the forecast, Marie will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.5N 112.1W this afternoon, move to 18.4N 113.6W Thu morning, 19.1N 115.1W Thu afternoon, 19.7N 116.6W Fri morning, 20.2N 118.0W Fri afternoon, and 20.8N 119.3W Sat morning. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves near 22.1N 121.8W early Sun. Karina will move to 19.0N 133.1W this afternoon, 19.5N 135.0W Thu morning, 19.9N 137.0W Thu afternoon, 20.4N 139.0W Fri morning, 20.8N 140.8W Fri afternoon, and 21.4N 142.3W Sat morning. Karina will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.9N 144.8W early Sun. Elsewhere, the cross equatorial swell will remain south of 02N over the next few days, producing seas to 9 ft before subsiding late this week.