Tropical Cyclone Discussion
956 WTPA44 PHFO 020852 TCDCP4 Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 24 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Tue Sep 01 2026 Satellite imagery shows that Lowell is a well-organized, compact hurricane that has continued to intensify since the last advisory. The initial intensity is set to 125 kt, between a blend of the various subjective and objective Dvorak estimates from 118-137 kt. Lowell has undergone an impressive 65-kt very rapid intensification during the last 24 hours, and it should remain in generally conducive large-scale conditions of warm water and light shear for the next several days. The storm could even make category 5 intensity on Wednesday before a series of eyewall replacement cycles likely commence by Thursday. The intensity forecast is raised in the short term, but otherwise is similar to the previous one, on the higher side of the guidance envelope. There is a high likelihood that Lowell will remain a powerful hurricane for days to come, with the intensity governed largely by internal dynamics (like eyewall replacements). The initial motion is westward at 10 kt. A westward motion is anticipated during the next several days due to a mid-level ridge over the Central Pacific. By Sunday, an upper-level trough is expected to weaken the ridge, causing Lowell to slow down and take a more northward turn, though there is considerable uncertainty on how sharp that turn might be. Similar to the last advisory, the official track forecast is nudged slightly southward, near the HCCA and GDMI track aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Lowell. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 13.5N 152.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 13.6N 153.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 13.7N 155.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 13.9N 157.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 14.0N 159.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 14.0N 160.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 14.0N 161.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 14.3N 164.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 15.6N 164.7W 120 KT 140 MPH