Tropical Cyclone Discussion
762 WTPZ43 KNHC 020844 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026 200 AM MST Wed Sep 02 2026 Satellite imagery shows that Marie continues to produce deep convection near the center, with a large curved band in the southeastern semicircle of the storm. An earlier microwave image did show that the inner core remains in the primitive stages of development, though that was several hours ago now. Intensity estimates are about the same as the last cycle, so the current winds will remain 55 kt. Marie remains on a northwestward heading tonight, steered by a distant ridge over Mexico. The ridge is forecast to build westward later this week, which will likely force Marie to move more towards the west-northwest. Track uncertainty is high by the weekend due to an approaching mid-latitude trough over the eastern Pacific, though the bulk of the guidance show this trough missing the storm. The new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, showing the west-northwestward track at the end of the forecast, and lying near the typically reliable HCCA and GDMI consensus aids. The storm has a couple of days over very warm waters within light shear for intensification. The biggest current hindrance is probably the earlier-observed broad microwave structure, though very deep convection is near the center. Thus the NHC forecast will stay on the aggressive side of the guidance, and little change is made to the previous forecast. By the weekend, Marie is forecast to move over cooler SSTs and into a drier, more stable air mass, which should induce a gradual weakening trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 16.7N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 17.5N 112.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 18.4N 113.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 19.1N 115.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 19.7N 116.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 20.2N 118.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 20.8N 119.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 22.1N 121.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 22.8N 124.6W 65 KT 75 MPH