Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
578 AXNT20 KNHC 020437 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Sep 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Edouard continues to move farther inland and weaken tonight, and is centered near 30.5N 94.6W at 02/0300 UTC, or about 40 miles NW of Beaumont, Texas, moving NW at 8 mph. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Coastal observations to the south of Edouard indicated that southerly winds have diminished to 15 to 20 kt with higher gusts, and seas there are estimated to have subsided to 4-5 ft. A continued northwest motion and weakening are expected during the next day or so, as the system moves over southeastern and eastern Texas through Wednesday, and is expected to dissipate Thursday. With Edouard well inland across Texas, and winds and seas diminishing across the NE Texas and SW Louisiana coastal waters, the main threat is now heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Edouard NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08.5N to 14.5N between 33W and 38W. A well-defined tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 52W, south of 23N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is interacting with an upper level trough to it's west, and producing scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection from 16N to 21.5N and between 49W and 53W. Recent satellite scatterometer data has shown a very sharp surface trough with this wave, with fresh to strong winds currently from 15N to 21N between 47W and 53W, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 11N20W then to 09N39W to 10N49W. The ITCZ extends from 09N52W to 08N60W. Scattered strong convection is emerging off the coast of Africa from 06.5N to 11N E of 16W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 04.5N to 10N between 30N and 46W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Tropical Depression Edouard located over NE Texas. Away from Tropical Depression Edouard, a weak pressure gradient prevails across the basin, resulting in moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and slight seas. Fresh NE winds prevail across the coastal waters NW and W portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving off the W coast of Florida earlier tonight have almost completely collapsed there. Isolated showers dot central portions of the basin. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Edouard will continue to move northwestward, and become a remnant low over eastern Texas Wed evening and dissipate Thu morning. In the wake of Edouard, relatively weak high pressure will prevail allowing for moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas. Expect fresh winds near the Texas and Mexican coasts each afternoon and evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low from the Cayman Islands to NW Cuba continues to combine with ample low level moisture moving in from the southeast to produce lingering scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms over eastern Cuba, western Haiti and the surrounding waters between the SE Bahamas and Jamaica. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms also prevail across SW portions and into the coastal waters of NE Nicaragua and Honduras, behind a tropical wave exiting Central America and moving into the eastern Tropical Pacific. Weak Bermuda High pressure north of the basin is promoting a modest pressure gradient to the south, and yielding moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across the central and east-central Caribbean between 63W and 75W, per recent satellite scatterometer data. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across these waters. Moderate easterly winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent W portions, except for moderate winds across the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, a trough across east-central Cuba and the adjacent waters will continue moving WNW through Fri, accompanied by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly east of the trough. Elsewhere across the basin, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge to the north and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trades along with moderate to rough seas over the central and eastern Caribbean through the next few days, while moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas remain over the rest of the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A low to middle level trough extends from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and the SE Florida coastal waters. Meanwhile, another low level trough is moving across eastern Cuba and the SE Bahamas, with abundant low level moisture behind it. These feature are combining to produce scattered moderate isolated strong convection from the NW Bahamas to just SW of Bermuda, and across the coastal waters of NE and central Cuba, that is being sustained by divergent flow aloft associated with an upper level low over the Florida Panhandle. Scattered moderate convection also continues across the near and offshore waters of Florida W of 78W. Moderate SE surface winds generally prevail from 70W to the Bahamas as well as S of 25N between 65W and 70W, were seas are 4 to 6 ft. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge centered southwest of the Azores, anchored on a 1027 mb high near 35N35W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found S of 25N between 30W and 65W. Meanwhile, fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are present north of 18N and east of 27W off Morocco and NW Mauritania and the Canary Islands and into the eastern Atlantic. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere N of 25N. For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough extending from the central Bahamas to east-central Cuba will continue moving W-NW through Fri, while moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over the waters south of about 26N between 68W and 78W continue. Embedded in this E to SE wind flow, abundant deep tropical moisture will sustain scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms between Florida and 63W through Fri. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas over the forecast waters.