Tropical Cyclone Discussion

724
WTPZ41 KNHC 020238
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Karina Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
500 PM HST Tue Sep 01 2026
 
The infrared satellite presentation for Karina has improved over
the last several hours as the cloud tops have cooled down to around
-70 degrees Celsius. Based on the presentation from the infrared 
and analysis from the SHIP guidance, Karina has developed annular 
characteristics. However, the eye still remains cloud filled at
this time. The current satellite intensity estimates range from
114 to 129 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity for this advisory 
has been brought up to 120 kt.
 
The major hurricane is moving westward at about 9 kt. A general
slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the
next 3 to 4 days as a narrow mid-level ridge remains situated to the
north of the hurricane. During the weekend, a turn to the northwest
seems likely as the ridge shifts eastward and the cyclone 
approaches a mid- to upper-level low north of Hawaii.  The current 
NHC forecast track is very similiar to the previous one with 
only small adjustments in speed and is slightly to the right 
of the previous track. The current official forecast track 
continues to keep the hurricane to the north of the Hawaiian 
Islands. 

In the short term, the hurricane has the opportunity to intensify a 
bit, however, in the long run, the environment will become less 
favorable for Karina due to cooler ocean waters and decreasing 
relative humidity. With Karina developing annular characteristics 
the rate of weakening is expected to be slower at first. The current 
NHC intensity forecast shows a bit of strengthening within the first 
12 h, and then a gradual weakening for 24 to 60h. Past 60 h, the 
rate of weakening should increase as the low- to mid-level relative 
humidity drops below 40%. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 18.3N 130.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 18.7N 132.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 19.1N 134.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 19.5N 136.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 19.9N 138.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  04/1200Z 20.2N 139.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 20.7N 141.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 22.3N 144.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 24.5N 146.8W   50 KT  60 MPH