Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
694 AXNT20 KNHC 012257 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Wed Sep 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2255 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Edouard is centered near 29.9N 94.0W at 01/2100 UTC or 30 nm W of Cameron Louisiana, moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are around 10 ft and rapidly subsiding as Eduard pushes inland. Edouard is moving toward the northwest near 5 kt, and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Continued weakening is expected during the next day or so, and Edouard is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression tonight and dissipate by Wednesday night. The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Edouard NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present within 120 nm on both sides of the trough. A well-defined tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 51W, south of 23N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is interacting with an upper level trough and producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 15N to 24N and between 48W and 53W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 09N49W. The ITCZ extends from 10N53W to 11N60W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from 04N to 10N between 38N and 46W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Edouard located over SW Louisiana. Away from Tropical Storm Edouard, a weak pressure gradient results in moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen in the eastern Gulf as storms that previously formed over Florida and western Cuba push offshore. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Edouard is near 29.9N 94.0W, or about 35 nm W of Cameron, Louisiana at 5 PM EDT. It is moving northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Edouard will move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 30.7N 94.8W late tonight, then move farther inland to near 31.6N 95.7W Wed afternoon and dissipate Thu morning. In the wake of Edouard, relatively weak high pressure will prevail allowing for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low centered west of the Cayman Islands, a surface trough across Central Cuba and diurnal heating combine to produce showers and isolated thunderstorms over Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica and surrounding waters. Similar activity is present in the SW Caribbean. High pressure north of the islands forces fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate seas across the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are evident in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the aforementioned trough will continue moving WNW through Thu. Elsewhere across the basin, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trades along with moderate to rough seas over the central and eastern Caribbean through the next few days while moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas remain over the remainder of the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and South Florida. This feature is interacting with an upper level low over the Florida panhandle and combined with a divergent flow aloft, numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are present north of 25N and west of 70W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge centered southwest of the Azores. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found between 20W and 55W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are occurring west of 70W. However, stronger winds and higher seas are likely occurring near the strongest convection by the Bahamas. Meanwhile, fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are present north of 18N and east of 20W off Morocco and NW Mauritania and the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough extends from the central Bahamas to central Cuba. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are over the waters south of about 26N between 67W and 77W. The trough will continue moving WNW through Thu. Elsewhere, abundant deep tropical moisture will continue to help sustain scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms W of 63W through Wed. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas over the forecast waters.