Tropical Cyclone Discussion
736 WTPZ41 KNHC 012031 TCDEP1 Hurricane Karina Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026 1100 AM HST Tue Sep 01 2026 Karina remains a powerful major hurricane. However, the cyclone appears to have lost a little strength. The eye of the hurricane remains cloud filled and the cloud tops around the eye are not quite as cold as they were earlier this morning. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 90 kt to about 135 kt, and based on that data and the slightly degraded appearance, the initial intensity is nudged lower to 115 kt. The major hurricane is moving westward at about 10 kt. A general slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 3 to 4 days as a narrow mid-level ridge remains situated to the north of the hurricane. Over the weekend, a turn to the northwest seems likely as the ridge shifts eastward and as the cyclone approaches a mid- to upper-level low north of Hawaii. Little change was made to the previous forecast, except for a slight northward adjustment at days 4 and 5. Even though there is a fair amount of spread in the models toward the end of the forecast period, there is high confidence that the system will pass to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. Karina is forecast to gradually lose strength over the next several days. Although the wind shear is expected to remain low for the next few days, progressively cooler SSTs and decreasing relative humidity values should cause steady weakening. However, the hurricane could become annular, which might cause it to weaken at a slower pace than average. The models are unanimous in showing weakening, but vary on the rate. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies a little above the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 18.2N 129.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 18.4N 131.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 18.9N 133.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 19.3N 135.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 19.7N 137.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 20.0N 138.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 20.3N 140.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 21.6N 143.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 23.6N 146.3W 55 KT 65 MPH