Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
464 AXPZ20 KNHC 011549 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Sep 1 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1535 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Karina is centered near 18.1N 129.0W at 01/1500 UTC, moving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Peak seas are around 38 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 16N to 22N between 127W and 132W. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the next several days. Karina is moving toward the west near 10 kt, and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 15.0N 108.7W at 01/1500 UTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are around 16 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 105W and 115W. Marie is moving toward the northwest near 7 kt, and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Thursday. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Marie is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday night. Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few days and will likely spread northward to southern California over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is entering the eastern Pacific along 85W, extending across Central America to 04N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring north of 06N and between 82W and 88W. The tropical wave previously analyzed at 97W has been absorbed into the circulation of Tropical Storm Marie. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 13N104W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present from 03N to 10N and east of 100W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Marie centered SW of Mexico. Aside from the impacts of Marie, moderate northerly winds and moderate seas are occurring off northern Baja California, while light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere, including the Gulfs of California and Tehuantepec. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Marie is near 15.0N 108.7W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Marie will move to 16.0N 109.8W this evening, 17.1N 111.2W Wed morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 18.0N 112.4W Wed evening, 19.0N 113.9W Thu morning, 19.7N 115.6W Thu evening, and 20.3N 117.0W Fri morning. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves to the 21.4N 119.8W early Sat. Elsewhere, a tighter pressure gradient will result in fresh to locally strong southerly winds and moderate seas in the northern Gulf of California Tue night into Fri night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the area supports moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas in the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending outward to 90W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean will sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo through the workweek and possibly pulse to strong speeds in the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Hurricane Karina centered well southwest of Mexico, and Tropical Storm Marie located southwest of Mexico. Aside from the impacts of Hurricane Karina and Tropical Storm Marie, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas dominate the tropical eastern Pacific. A small area of cross equatorial swell is noted south of the equator producing seas to 8 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Karina is near 18.1N 129.0W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving west at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 945 mb. Karina will move to 18.3N 130.4W this evening, 18.8N 132.4W Wed morning, 19.2N 134.2W Wed evening, 19.5N 136.1W Thu morning, 19.8N 137.9W Thu evening, and 20.1N 139.8W Fri morning. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to the 21.1N 143.4W early Sat. Tropical Storm Marie is near 15.0N 108.7W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Marie will move to 16.0N 109.8W this evening, 17.1N 111.2W Wed morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 18.0N 112.4W Wed evening, 19.0N 113.9W Thu morning, 19.7N 115.6W Thu evening, and 20.3N 117.0W Fri morning. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves to the 21.4N 119.8W early Sat. Elsewhere, the cross equatorial swell will remain near the equator and south over the next few days, producing seas to 9 ft before subsiding late this week.