Tropical Cyclone Discussion
942 WTNT45 KNHC 011446 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052026 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026 Edouard is a small but strengthening tropical storm. The center has been trackable this morning using NWS radar data from Lake Charles, Louisiana (KLCH), and recent data show the inner-core structure of the system is becoming better organized. There has been a notable increase in deep convection near and to the south of the center, and a recent dropsonde released in that area reported mean boundary layer winds of 61 kt. Doppler velocities have also notably strengthened during the past couple of hours, and adjusting these data to estimate a surface wind support raising the initial intensity to 45 kt. The last center dropsonde from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters showed the central pressure has fallen to 1000 mb. Environmental and oceanic conditions are conducive for additional strengthening for as long as the center remains offshore. With very warm Gulf waters and weak vertical wind shear, the hurricane regional models continue to highlight the potential for continued strengthening through landfall. The 12-h forecast point for Edouard is well inland, but note that additional strengthening is expected that cannot be easily reflected in the official forecast. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch remain in effect for portions of the Upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana. Given the improved radar structure of Edouard and the expectation of additional strengthening, NHC will issue hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates (TCU) beginning at 1100 am CDT (16 UTC). Once inland, Edouard is likely to rapidly weaken and should dissipate on Wednesday. Some short-term wobbles have been observed in radar data during the past few hours, but the longer-term motion of Edouard is northwestward (305/7 kt). This general motion is expected to continue through tonight, which will bring the center of Edouard onshore near the Texas/Louisiana border within the warning area this afternoon and then inland across southeastern Texas tonight. The updated NHC track forecast lies slightly to the right of the previous prediction based on the latest consensus trends. Key Messages: 1. Edouard is strengthening as it approaches the northwest Gulf Coast, and tropical storm conditions are beginning along the southwestern Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts. Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are still possible from High Island to Cameron later today. 2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect along the immediate coast from High Island, Texas, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana, where peak values of 3 to 5 feet above ground level are possible. 3. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through east-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana today and Wednesday as Edouard tracks inland. Flash flooding is likely across this region, especially in urban areas. River flooding may also be possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 29.4N 93.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 30.2N 94.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 02/1200Z 31.2N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED