Tropical Cyclone Discussion
941 WTPA44 PHFO 011446 TCDCP4 Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 20 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Tue Sep 01 2026 The satellite presentation of Lowell has improved significantly over the past 12 to 24 hours. The cyclone consists of a large central area of very cold cloud tops with an impressive curved band extending out towards the southwest quadrant. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates from JTWC and PHFO range from 55-65 kt, and the latest objective intensity estimates range from 60 to 70 kt. Based on improving structure observed on satellite imagery over the past few hours, the initial intensity is increased to 70 kt. The initial motion is west-northwestward, or about 285/10 kt. A mid-level subtropical ridge north of Lowell should remain the primary steering influence during the next 4 days or so, resulting in a generally westward to west-northwestward motion. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement during this time period, and generally shows Lowell continuing west-northwestward through day 4. In about 4 days, the cyclone should slow down, and may gain some latitude as a mid- to upper-level trough well north of the Hawaiian Islands weakens the subtropical ridge, possibly causing a turn toward the northwest by day 5. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies close to the Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean (GDMI) for the first 2-3 days, and is north of the GDMI and HCCA for the 3 to 5 day portion of the forecast. Environmental conditions are ripe for Lowell to intensify rapidly over the next day or two. Now that the core is well-formed, Lowell should be able to take advantage of the weak vertical wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures. The HAFS and HWRF models show Lowell becoming a major hurricane within the next 24 to 36 hours, and the NHC intensity forecast follows suit. The SHIPS DTOPS has about a 75 percent chance of 45 kt strengthening over the next 36 hours, and the NHC forecast shows 40 kt of strengthening during that time. The new NHC intensity forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening during the first 36 hours of the forecast, and the peak intensity has been increased slightly to 110 kt. The new NHC intensity forecast lies between the middle and upper end of the intensity guidance suite, and is in between the intensity consensus (IVCN) and the HCCA. Ocean waters should remain warm and vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low through day 5, so the NHC forecast holds Lowell at major hurricane strength through day 5. Key Messages: 1. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Lowell. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 13.4N 149.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 13.6N 150.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 13.7N 152.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 14.0N 154.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 14.3N 156.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 14.5N 158.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 14.7N 159.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 14.9N 162.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 15.6N 164.4W 105 KT 120 MPH