Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
848 AXNT20 KNHC 011045 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Sep 1 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Edouard: Tropical Storm Edouard is centered near 29.0N 92.8W at 01/0900 UTC or 60 nm SSE of Cameron Louisiana, moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt and peak seas to 13 ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm across the northern semicircle. A west- northwestward to northwestward motion is forecast during the next couple of days. Edouard will be moving through a favorable environment, and strengthening is expected until landfall near the Louisiana-Texas border tonight. A Hurricane Watch, Tropical Storm Warning, and Storm Surge Warning are in effect for portion of the northwest Gulf coast. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Edouard NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 31W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 14N between 26W and 33W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W, south of 23N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the wave axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 10N44W. The ITCZ extends from 10N51W to 08N60W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from 03N to 10N between 31N and 42W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Edouard. Away from this feature, weak high pressure dominates, supporting gentle or weaker winds and slight seas, except for moderate to locally fresh NE winds along the western coastal waters of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered evening thunderstorms across northern and central Florida are shifting westward into the coastal waters of the Florida Big Bend and up to 75 nm offshore from Venice to Fort Meyers. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Edouard will move to 29.7N 93.8W this afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 30.6N 95.0W Wed morning, inland to 31.7N 95.9W Wed afternoon, and dissipate Thu morning. In the wake of the tropical cyclone, relatively weak high pressure will prevail allowing for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The low level remnants of former Dolly, now a surface trough, are moving across Haiti and the adjacent Atlantic waters, with a surge of E to SE winds across the NE Caribbean and the Mona Passage, as recently depicted by satellite scatterometer data. Scattered moderate convection extends from the Windward Passage eastward across portions of Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands and the adjacent Caribbean waters N of 16.5N. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between the Azores High and associated ridge and lower pressure across northern South America is leading to fresh to locally strong trades across the central and eastern basin S of 16N and E of 73W, with highest winds offshore western Venezuela. Seas in this region are 5 to 7 ft. To the W of 80W, winds and seas are moderate across the SW Caribbean, with gentle trades and slight seas in the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection accompany the northern portion of the tropical wave along 81W. For the forecast, the remnants of Dolly will continue moving WNW through midweek. Elsewhere across the basin, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and Colombian low will continue to induce fresh to strong easterly trades and moderate to rough seas over the central and eastern Caribbean through the rest of the period, with moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevailing for the remainder of the waters. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle level trough extending from south Florida E-NE to SW of Bermuda continues to promote scattered moderate convection across this area, north of 26N. A deep layered upper trough extends from 30N46W to Puerto Rico and is also promoting scattered moderate convection nearby, with more concentrated convection across Puerto Rico coastal waters. At the surface, a 1026 mb Azores High near 35N32W extends a ridge westward to near 66W. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are found S of 27N and W of 70W, and S of 25N and E of 50W. Moderate seas prevail across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the remnants of Dolly will continue moving WNW through midweek. Elsewhere, abundant deep tropical moisture will continue to help enhance scattered thunderstorms W of 63W through Wed. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas over the forecast waters.