Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

836
AXNT20 KNHC 312313
TWDAT 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Sep 01 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Depression Five: Tropical Depression Five is centered 
near 28.2N 91.5W at 31/2100 UTC or 90 nm S of Morgan City 
Louisiana, moving WNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 
is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40
kt and peak seas to 13 ft. Isolated moderate convection is noted 
from 27N-30N between 90W-93W. A west-northwestward to 
northwestward motion is forecast during the next couple of days. 
On the forecast track, the center of the system is predicted to 
reach the northwestern Gulf Coast within the warning area on 
Tuesday and move inland over southeast Texas on Tuesday night. 
Strengthening is expected, and the depression is likely to become 
a tropical storm this evening.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Five 
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details. 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is 
noted from 06N to 11N between 23W and 30W. 
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted in
association with this wave.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, south of 18N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted in
association with this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 10N46W. The 
ITCZ extends from 09N51W to 09N61W along the coast of Guyana. 
Scatted moderate and isolate strong convection is occurring
from 05N-10N between 32N042W. Isolated moderate convection is 
noted from 06N to 11N between 23W and 30W.
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Depression Five.
Away from this feature, weak high pressure dominates, supporting
gentle or weaker winds and slight seas. 
For the forecast, Tropical Depression Five will intensify to a 
tropical storm near 28.8N 92.4W late tonight with maximum 
sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, reach near 29.6N 93.8W Tue 
afternoon with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt, move 
inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 30.6N 95.2W late 
Tue night, continue inland to near 31.6N 96.1W Wed afternoon and 
dissipate late Wed night. Conditions will improve Tue. In the wake
of the tropical cyclone, relatively weak high pressure will 
prevail allowing for moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High north of 
the basin and a 1009 mb Colombian Low is leading to moderate to 
fresh trades across the central and eastern basin, with locally 
strong winds offshore western Venezuela. Seas in this region are 5
to 7 ft. Winds and seas are moderate in the SW Caribbean, with 
gentle trades and slight seas in the NW Caribbean. 
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical 
ridge and Colombian low will continue to induce fresh to locally 
strong easterly trades and moderate to locally rough seas over the
central and eastern Caribbean through the rest of the period, 
with moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
prevailing for the remainder of the waters. 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A zone of fresh trades is present from 65W to 75W south of 25N, 
where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Fresh to locally strong NNE winds are 
noted off the African coast and near the Canary Islands, 
otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds prevail through the 
basin, with moderate seas dominant. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted north of 26N between 70W and
78W. A westward-moving surface trough - the remnants of Tropical 
Storm Dolly - from Haiti to 23N70W is inducing scattered moderate
convection for the offshore waters of Hispaniola.
For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will continue 
WNW and impacting the Turks and Caicos, Cuba and some portions of 
the central and southeastern Bahamas Tue into Wed bringing similar
conditions to the waters S of about 24N. Elsewhere, abundant deep
tropical moisture will continue to help enhance scattered 
thunderstorms W of 65W through Wed. Otherwise, the subtropical 
ridge will dominate, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds 
and moderate seas over the forecast waters.