Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
719 AXNT20 KNHC 311616 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon Aug 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Five: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is centered near 27.8N 91.0W at 31/1500 UTC or 110 nm S of Morgan City Louisiana, moving WNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Rough seas are building, mainly to the north of the center. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present north of 26N and between 88W and 92W. A continued slow west-northwest motion is expected for the next day or two, and the system is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf coast Tue. Strengthening is forecast and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Five NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 20W and 30W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 08N to 16N and between 39W and 49W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed S of 12N between 74W and 77W. The tropical wave previously in the western Caribbean has moved inland into Central America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 10N41W. The ITCZ extends from 10N47W to 09N61W. Convection near these features is primarily associated with the eastern Atlantic tropical wave, described above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. Away from this feature, weak high pressure dominates, supporting gentle or weaker winds and slight seas. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five will move to near 28.3N 91.8W this evening with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, to near 29.1N 93.2W Tue morning with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt and inland to near 29.9N 94.4W Tue evening, to near 31.1N 95.5W Wed morning and dissipate Wed evening. Conditions will improve Tue. Away from this system, weak high pressure will prevail allowing for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See Tropical Waves section above for information about convection in the southwest basin. A westward-moving surface trough over Haiti is inducing scattered moderate convection for the offshore waters of Hispaniola. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the basin and lower pressure in the deep tropics is leading to moderate to fresh trades across the central and eastern basin, with locally strong winds offshore western Venezuela. Seas in this region are 5 to 7 ft. Winds and seas are moderate in the SW Caribbean, with gentle trades and slight seas in the NW. For the forecast, the surface trough currently over Haiti will impact Cuba and the Bahamas Tue into Wed. Elsewhere across the basin, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and Colombian low will continue to induce fresh to locally strong easterly trades and moderate to locally rough seas over the central and eastern Caribbean through the week, with moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevailing for the remainder of the waters. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Tropical Waves section above for information about convection south of 20N. Divergence aloft and plenty of moisture continue to produces scattered moderate convection N of 25N and E of 65W. A surface trough along 62W, extending southward to 25N, is also inducing a more concentrated area of thunderstorms. Farther south, another surface trough moving westward across Haiti extends northward to the Turks and Caicos, and is also generating scattered thunderstorms. A final area of convection is cluster around 28N48W, in association with a deep-layer trough. A zone of fresh trades is present from 65W to 75W S of 25N, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Fresh to strong NNE winds are noted off the African coast and near the Canary Islands, otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds prevail through the basin, with moderate seas dominant. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough currently over Haiti will impact Cuba and the Bahamas Tue into Wed, bringing similar conditions to waters S of 24N. Elsewhere, abundant tropical moisture and a deep-layer trough will aide in scattered thunderstorms W of 70W through Tue. To the east, the subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.