Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
608 AXPZ20 KNHC 311534 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Aug 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Karina is centered near 17.4N 125.1W at 31/1500 UTC, moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt Peak seas are around 35 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 15N-19N between 121W-129W. This motion is expected to continue through the rest of today. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Tuesday. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity remain possible today, and a gradual weakening trend is expected to begin on Tuesday. Swells generated by Karina will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next couple of days and will likely spread northward to southern California on Monday through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Karina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP95): A 1008 mb low at 12N109W, designated Invest EP95, is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone later today or tonight while it moves steadily toward the northwest. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 06N-13N between 105W-112W. Peak winds are currently 30 kt and largest seas 11 ft. Because of this system, a Storm Warning has been issued for the zone near the Revillagigedo Islands. Highest winds and largest seas should occur Wed and Thu. While the core of the system may stay outside of the zones west of Baja California Sur, fresh to near gale conditions and large swell are likely to occur in these offshore zones on Thu and Fri. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 109W from 05N-20N with a 1008 mb low at 12N109W, moving west around 10 kt. This system is also denoted Invest EP95. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 06N-13N between 105W-112W. Another tropical wave axis is along 94W from 05N-15N, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-16N between 89W-98W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Costa Rica at 09N83W to 12N120W. After ending southeast of Karina, the monsoon trough resumes again from 10N129W to 11N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 06N-13N between 105W-112W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-16N between 89W-98W, north of 05N east of 85W, from 04N-12N between 113W-128W, and from 03N-08N west of 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Invest EP95. A 1008 mb low at 12N109W, designated Invest EP95, has peak winds over the Mexican Offshore Zones are 25 kt and seas to 9 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5-7 ft over Pacific waters and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-16N between 89W-98W. For the forecast, Invest EP95 is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone later today or tonight while it moves steadily toward the northwest. Because of this system, a Storm Warning has been issued for the zone near the Revillagigedo Islands. Highest winds and largest seas should occur Wed and Thu. While the core of the system may stay outside of the zones west of Baja California Sur, fresh to near gale conditions and large swell are likely to occur in these offshore zones on Thu and Fri. Elsewhere, fresh S to SE winds may occur in the northern Gulf of California on Thu and Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds are moderate or weaker over forecast waters with seas 5-6 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 05N east of 85W. For the forecast, winds and seas should remain quiescent for the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Hurricane Karina, and Invest EP95. Aside from Karina and Invest EP95, winds across the High Seas are moderate to locally strong with seas 5-7 ft. For the forecast, Karina will move to 17.6N 126.4W this evening, 18.0N 128.4W Tue morning, 18.4N 130.3W Tue evening, 18.8N 132.3W Wed morning, 19.2N 134.2W Wed evening, and 19.5N 136.1W Thu morning. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to 20.2N 139.9W early Fri. Invest EP95 is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone later today or tonight while it moves steadily toward the northwest. Because of this system, Storm Warnings has been issued for Storm Warnings have been issued for the High Seas waters adjacent to the Mexico Offshore zone. The system should continue moving northwestward reaching around 20N120W by Fri night.