Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
730 AXNT20 KNHC 311009 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Aug 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0955 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Northern Gulf of America (AL97): An area of low pressure (Invest AL97) is near 27N90W over the northern Gulf of America, located more than 85 nm south of the coast of southern Louisiana. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present north of 26N and between 88W and 92W. Earlier satellite wind data indicated that the circulation has not become much better defined from yesterday while producing 25 to 30 kt winds. Regardless, additional development is anticipated as the low moves slowly west-northwestward, and a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form before the system reaches the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts by tonight or Tuesday morning. Interests along the southwest Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area later today. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this morning. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. Please, refer to the HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 08N to 16N and between 37W and 49W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is observed over the ocean. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring south in eastern Honduras and Nicaragua and nearby waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 10N37W. The ITCZ extends from 10N37W to 10N44W and then from 10N46W to 09N61W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 04N to 14N and east of 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Invest AL97 over the north-central Gulf waters. Away from the disturbance in the north-central Gulf, a weak high pressure dominates the basin supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to locally moderate seas. For the forecast, an area of low pressure...Invest AL97...located near 27N90W over the northern Gulf waters is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The system has a high chance of tropical development over the next couple of days as it moves toward the NW Gulf coast. Regardless, is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts during the next several days. Near gale-force winds and rough seas are forecast to develop in the nearshore waters this afternoon into tonight. Conditions will improve Tue. Away from this system, weak high pressure will prevail allowing for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is moving across eastern Hispaniola producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with some storms extending eastward to the Leeward Islands. Strong storms are also noted in the SW Caribbean off Panama and Colombia. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the islands and lower pressures in the deep tropics has slacken a bit as the remnants of Dolly pass over the Greater Antilles. Moderate to locally strong easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are occurring in the central and eastern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a surface trough located across eastern Hispaniola is producing a few showers and isolated thunderstorms, along with strong winds and rough seas. This trough will move WNW and continue to impact Hispaniola today, then Cuba and the Bahamas Tue into Wed. Localized heavy rainfall is possible, especially in the mountainousterrain. Elsewhere across the basin, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and Colombian low will continue to force fresh to locally strong easterly trades and moderate to locally rough seas over the central and eastern Caribbean through the week, with moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevailing for the remainder of the waters. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Divergence aloft and plenty of moisture continue to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms between Bermuda and the NW Bahamas and Florida. Farther south, a surface trough moving across eastern Hispaniola is generating scattered showers and some thunderstorms over the waters south of 24N and between the SE Bahamas and 65W. Moderate to locally strong SE winds and rough seas are occurring south of 26N and between 62W and the Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted in the north-central Atlantic due to an upper level low in the area. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge centered near 33N35W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found across much of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough located across eastern Hispaniola is producing a few showers and isolated thunderstorms, along with strong winds and rough seas. This trough will move WNW and continue to impact Hispaniola today, then Cuba and the Bahamas Tue into Wed, bringing similar conditions to waters S of 24N. Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent tropical development of this system over the next day or two while it moves quickly westward to west- northwestward at 20 to 25 mph. Conditions could become more conducive for redevelopment by the middle of the week as the system reaches the southern Bahamas or Florida Straits. The disturbance has a low chance of formation over the next 7 days. Elsewhere, abundant tropical moisture and a deep- layer trough will aide in scattered thunderstorms W of 70W through Tue. To the east, the subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.