Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
279 AXPZ20 KNHC 310949 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Aug 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Karina is centered near 17.2N 124.4W at 31/0900 UTC, moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Peak seas are around 28 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 14N to 20N between 120W and 128W. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to begin on Tuesday. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible on Monday, followed by fluctuations in intensity through the middle part of this week. Swells generated by Karina will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next couple of days and will likely spread northward to southern California on Monday through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Karina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP95): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located well offshore of southwestern Mexico remain disorganized. Numerous to scattered moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 15N between 101W and 118W. However, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system continues to move west- northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and also through 7 days. Regardless of development, gale- force winds will be likely for the Revillagigedo Islands, the outer Baja California Sur offshores S of Cabo San Lazaro as well as the Baja California offshore adjacent waters Tue night through late Fri. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 92W north of 05N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of 03N between 88W and 98W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N100W to 14N116W, then resumes SW of Karina near 12N130W to 11N139W. In addition to the convection associated with Karina, Invest EP95 and the tropical wave, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident N of 03N E of 88W, and from 00N to 10N W of 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Invest EP95. Moderate to fresh N gap winds are now blowing across Tehuantepec region and downwind to near 14N. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and slight seas dominate the Gulf of California, except the central part of the Gulf where fresh to strong winds are noted. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are present elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas associated with Invest EP95 are forecast to affect the outer SW Mexican offshores W of 101W today through Wed, with these conditions shiftting to the Baja California Sur offshores the remainder forecast period. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system continues to move west-northwestward to northwestward. Regardless of development, gale-force winds will be likely for the Revillagigedo Islands and the outer Baja California Sur offshores S of Cabo San Lazaro Tue night through late Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 11N88W, with 5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through Fri night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere through the forecast period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Hurricane Karina, and Invest EP95. Hurricane Karina is near 17.2N 124.4W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 942 mb. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the open waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from Karina, EP95 and the aforementioned trough. Rough seas generated by Karina cover the waters from 11N to 24N between 115W and 128W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, Karina will move to 17.4N 125.8W this afternoon, 17.7N 127.6W Tue morning, 18.1N 129.6W Tue afternoon, 18.6N 131.7W Wed morning, 19.1N 133.6W Wed afternoon, and 19.4N 135.7W Thu morning. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves near 20.0N 139.5W early Fri. Looking ahead, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of EP95, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system continues to move west-northwestward to northwestward. Regardless of development, gale-force winds will be likely for the Revillagigedo Islands, the outer Baja California Sur offshores S of Cabo San Lazaro as well as the Baja California offshore adjacent waters Tue night through late Fri.