Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
210 AXNT20 KNHC 310426 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Aug 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Northern Gulf of America (AL97): A 1012 mb low pressure system is located over the north-central Gulf of America, south of the mouth of the Mississippi River, near 28N 89.5W, and drifting westward near 5 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is occurring within 90 nm of this low. Satellite imagery and recent satellite wind data indicate that this system has become better organized since yesterday, 20 to 25 kt winds occurring across the NE semicircle. Additional development is possible as the low moves slowly west- northwestward, and a short- lived tropical depression or tropical storm could form before the system reaches the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts Tuesday or Tuesday night. Interests along the Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts during the next couple of days. In anticipation of this intensification occurring, a Gale Warning has been issued. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. Near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola (Remnants of Dolly): A strong tropical wave, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, is producing sporadic bursts of showers and thunderstorms from the Mona Passage east and southeastward across portions of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the adjacent NE Caribbean and Atlantic waters to the northern Leeward Islands. Satellite data and surface observations indicate that there are no signs of a closed surface circulation, and redevelopment is unlikely during the next day or two while the wave moves westward to west- northwestward at about 20 kt. This system will bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola over the next couple of days. Conditions may become more conducive for redevelopment by the middle of the week as the system reaches the southeastern Gulf of America. Currently, scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection extends from the St Croix area southeastward to the waters just W of the northern Leeward Islands. Strong winds 20 to 30 kt accompany this wave, with seas to 8 to 11 ft across much of the nearby Atlantic waters, and 6 to 9 ft in the Caribbean Passages. Rainfall amounts and the location of the highest totals from this broad system will vary from island to island, as local topography will enhance orographic lift and support the heaviest rainfall. Please refer to your local weather agency for specific rainfall forecasts for your local area. Please, refer to the HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving away from the African coast, along 22W south of 20N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated shower activity is near the wave axis. Another Atlantic tropical is along 42W-43W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 15.5N between 38W and 47W. A strong tropical wave, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, extends from the Atlantic near 22N66W south-southwestward through the Mona Passage then southwestward to NW Venezuela. Scattered to numerous strong convection is occurring ahead of the wave across northern Colombia. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. Another tropical is over the western Caribbean near 82W, south of 19N, moving westward near 20 kt. The wave appears to enhance convection over the SW Caribbean, south of 15N and west of 80W, especially over northern Costa Rica and coastal sections of Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from Gambia at 13N17W southwestward to 08.5N25W. The ITCZ begins near 10N27W and extends to 12.5N43W, then resumes at 10N46W and continues westward to coastal Venezuela at 10N63W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 11N east of 20W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 26W and 38W and from 07N to 11N between 47W and 59W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection has become concentrated within 90 nm of a 1012 mb low pressure (AL97) south of the mouth of the Mississippi River, near 28N 89.5W. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are occurring across the N and E portions of this low, where seas are to 5 ft. Scattered weak to moderate showers dot the eastern portions of the Gulf, and have diminished in intensity and coverage in recent hours. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient prevails across the basin, producing moderate or weaker winds with seas 1 to 3 ft. For the forecast, Invest AL97 has become better defined and continued gradual development is expected as the low moves slowly west- northwestward, and a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form before the system reaches the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts on Tuesday or Tuesday night. A Gale Warning has been issued in anticipation of this intensification. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low pressure over the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will persist through the forecast period, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the Yucatan Peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for rainfall information associated with a strong tropical wave moving across the NE Caribbean. The pressure gradient between a weak Bermuda High north of the area and a 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean south of 14N with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh winds have shifted across the SE Caribbean where seas are 4 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5 ft or less. For the forecast, as previously mentioned, a strong tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean and adjacent Atlantic waters will move westward and impact Hispaniola tonight and Monday, then eastern Cuba into Tue with strong gusty winds, rough seas and periods of heavy rainfall. Elsewhere across the basin, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and Colombian low will continue to force fresh to locally strong easterly trades and moderate to locally rough seas over the central and eastern Caribbean through the week, with moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevailing for the remainder of the waters. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information about the strong tropical wave, remnants of Dolly, moving across the NE Caribbean. The Bermuda-Azores High extends as a ridge along 34N with a 1027 mb center at 34N34W extending westward to 75W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure near the ITCZ and monsoon trough is forcing only moderate to locally fresh trades S of 24N between 30W and 60W, with seas of 4 to 7 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the waters N of 24N and W of 60W, including the NW Bahamas, as a middle level trough continues across this area. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned remnants of Dolly will move W to W-NW and impact Hispaniola tonight and Monday, then eastern Cuba into Tue, bringing strong gusty winds, rough seas and periods of heavy rainfall to waters S of 23N through early this week. Elsewhere, abundant tropical moisture and a deep-layer trough will aide in scattered thunderstorms W of 70W through Tue. To the east, the subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.