Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
770 AXPZ20 KNHC 310407 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Aug 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Karina is centered near 17.1N 123.8W at 31/0300 UTC, moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Peak seas are around 36 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 13N to 20N between 120W and 127W. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast Monday night into Tuesday. Karina is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible over the next day or so. Swells generated by Karina will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Karina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP95): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located well offshore of southwestern Mexico remain disorganized. Scattered moderate to strong convection extends from 03N to 15N between 94W and 117W. Fresh to strong winds are also in the vicinity of the disturbance. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system continues to move west- northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and also through 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 91W north of 07N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of 03N between 87W and 94W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N90W to 08N90W to 11N106W to 12N118W. In addition to the convection near Karina, and the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident N of 03N E of 85W to the coast of Colombia. Part of this convective activity is affecting western Panama and Costa Rica. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Karina, and Invest EP95. Hurricane Karina is near 17.1N 123.8W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 954 mb. Fresh SE winds and rough seas on the far northeast periphery of Hurricane Karina are still reaching the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh N gap winds are now blowing across Tehuantepec region and downwind to near 14N. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and slight seas dominate the Gulf of California, except the central part of the Gulf where fresh to strong winds are noted. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are present elsewhere. For the forecast, Karina will continue to move WNW, and trailing fresh SE winds affecting the Revillagigedo Islands as well as rough seas to 9 ft across the Baja California offshore waters will move away from the area by Mon morning. Fresh to strong southerly winds in the northern Gulf of California will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds tonight, and prevail the remainder forecast period. Strong winds and rough seas associated with Invest EP95 are forecast to affect the outer SW Mexican offshores Tue, with this conditions shiftting to the Baja California Sur offshores the remainder forecast period. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 11N88W, with 5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through early this week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Southerly winds may freshen south of the monsoon early this week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the monsoon trough. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Hurricane Karina, and Invest EP95. Hurricane Karina is near 17.1N 123.8W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 954 mb. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the open waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from Karina, EP95 and the aforementioned trough. Rough seas generated by Karina cover the waters from 11N to 24N between 115W and 128W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, Karina will move to 17.1N 124.9W Mon morning, 17.4N 126.6W Mon evening, 17.9N 128.4W Tue morning, 18.4N 130.3W Tue evening, 18.9N 132.1W Wed morning, and 19.3N 134.0W Wed evening. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves near 20.2N 137.2W late Thu.