Tropical Cyclone Discussion
632 WTPA44 PHFO 310237 TCDCP4 Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 14 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Sun Aug 30 2026 Lowell's convective organization has changed little during the past several hours. Moderate easterly vertical wind shear continues to displace the bulk of the deep convection over and west of the low-level circulation center. With little change in the satellite presentation, a blend of an earlier scatterometer pass, the latest objective intensity estimates, and the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC supports holding the initial intensity at 45 kt. The initial motion is 270/10 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge north of the cyclone should remain the primary steering influence during the next couple of days, resulting in a continued westward motion. The track guidance remains in relatively good agreement through about 60 h. Thereafter, considerable cross-track spread persists among the guidance as Lowell gradually slows and begins to turn west-northwestward. Some of this spread may be due to the potential influence of Hurricane Karina to the northeast on Lowell's steering flow, as well as differences in how the models depict a mid- to upper-level trough northwest of the Hawaiian Islands and the resulting weakness in the subtropical ridge. The HCCA and Google DeepMind ensemble mean remain along the southern side of the guidance envelope through day 5, while several other models favor a more northwestward track along the northern side of the guidance envelope. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory and lies near the HCCA, Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI), and simple consensus (TVCN). Moderate easterly vertical wind shear of around 20 kt continues to affect Lowell and should temper the rate of strengthening in the short term. The shear is forecast to decrease during the next 12 to 24 h while the cyclone remains over warm waters, which should allow Lowell to become better organized and begin strengthening. A faster rate of intensification is forecast between 24 and 72 h as environmental conditions become more favorable. Thereafter, the intensity is forecast to level off around 96 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast is essentially an update of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 13.2N 143.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 13.1N 144.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 13.2N 146.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 13.4N 148.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 13.7N 150.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 02/1200Z 13.9N 152.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 14.2N 154.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 15.0N 157.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 15.7N 159.5W 90 KT 105 MPH