Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
040 AXNT20 KNHC 302301 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Aug 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Northern Gulf of America (AL97): A low pressure area is located over the northern Gulf of America about 125 miles south of the coast of southeastern Louisiana. Satellite imagery and recent satellite wind data indicate that this system has become better organized since yesterday. Additional development is possible as the low moves slowly west- northwestward, and a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm could form before the system reaches the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts Tuesday or Tuesday night. Interests along the Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts during the next couple of days. this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and also through 7 days. Near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Remnants of Dolly): A strong tropical wave, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms from Puerto Rico eastward across the Virgin Islands and the northern Leeward Islands. Satellite data and surface observations indicate that there are no signs of a closed surface circulation, and redevelopment is unlikely during the next day or two while the wave moves westward to west-northwestward at about 25 mph. The system should bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola over the next couple of days. Conditions may become more conducive for redevelopment by the middle of the week as the system reaches the southeastern Gulf of America. Showers and thunderstorms are currently affecting the Lesser Antilles mainly north of St. Lucia, Puerto Rico and the US/UK Virgin Islands and Dominican Republic. Rainfall amounts and the location of the highest totals will vary from island to island, as local topography will enhance orographic lift and support the heaviest rainfall. Please refer to your local weather agency for specific rainfall forecasts for your local area. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is added to 1800 UTC analysis/surface map along 20W south of 20N. Some shower activity is near the wave axis. Another tropical is along 42W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ. A strong tropical wave, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, is along 66W. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. Another tropical is over the central Caribbean with axis near 80W, south of 20N, moving westward near 20 kt. The wave appears to enhance convection over the SW Caribbean, especially over western Panama. A few showers are near the northern end of the wave axis over the Cayman Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from coastal Mauritania at 20N16W southwestward to 09N30W. The ITCZ begins there and extends to 10N39W, then resumes at 09N43W and continues westward to NE Venezuela at 08.5N60W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 10N between 23W and 60W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1014 mb low pressure (AL97) about 100 NM south of the mouth of the Mississippi River is producing scattered thunderstorms in the north-central waters. Aside from gusty winds in thunderstorms, peak winds are around 20 kt and seas 4 ft. Scatterometer data indicate the cyclonic circulation of this system, and a closed low is analyzed. Elsewhere, winds across the Gulf are moderate or weaker with seas 1 to 3 ft. For the forecast, additional development is possible as the above mentioned low moves slowly west-northwest and a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm could form before the system reaches the Upper Texas or SW Louisiana coasts Tue or Tue night. Regardless of development, mariners over the north-central and northwest Gulf can expect strong thunderstorms with gusty winds and locally higher seas early this week. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will persist through the forecast period, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for rainfall information associated with a strong tropical wave moving across the NE Caribbean. The pressure gradient from the Bermuda High north of the area along with the 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Additionally, rough seas in NE swell are impacting the Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, as previously mentioned, a strong tropical wave is producing numerous thunderstorms, strong winds, and rough seas over the far NE Caribbean, northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and adjacent Atlantic waters. This wave will move westward toward Hispaniola tonight and Monday, then affect eastern Cuba into Tue. Elsewhere across the basin, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and Colombian low will continue to force fresh to locally strong easterly trades and moderate to locally rough seas over the central and eastern Caribbean through the week, with moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevailing for the remainder of the waters. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information about the strong tropical wave, remnants of Dolly, moving across the NE Caribbean. The Bermuda-Azores High extends as a ridge along 34N with a 1025 mb center at 34N53W and a second 1025 mb center at 34N32W. The pressure gradient from those to lower pressure over the ITCZ and monsoon trough is forcing only moderate to locally fresh trades with seas of 4 to 7 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also noted north of 25N W of 60W, including parts of the Bahamas, and most of the Florida Peninsula. A diffluent pattern aloft continues to support this convective activity. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned remnants of Dolly will move westward and impact Hispaniola tonight and Monday, then eastern Cuba into Tue, bringing similar conditions to waters S of 23N early this week. Elsewhere, abundant tropical moisture and a deep-layer trough will aide in scattered thunderstorms W of 70W through Tue. To the east, the subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to locally strong off Hispaniola tonight.