Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
863 AXNT20 KNHC 300951 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Aug 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0935 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Rainfall across the NE Caribbean: A strong tropical wave, associated with the remnants of Dolly, is moving across the northern Leeward Islands producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, especially from 15N to 22N and between 56W and 65W. Satellite data and surface observations indicate that there are no signs of a closed surface circulation, and redevelopment is unlikely while the wave moves westward to west-northwestward at about 25 mph. The system could bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next couple of days. The wave is expected to bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the adjacent waters over the next several days. Rainfall amounts and the location of the highest totals will vary from island to island, as local topography will enhance orographic lift and support the heaviest rainfall. Please refer to your local weather agency for specific rainfall forecasts for your local area. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 15 kt. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring within 90 nm on both sides of the trough axis. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 62W, south of 21N, moving westward at 20-25 kt. Fresh to locally near gale-force winds and rough seas are associated with this wave. Recently a buoy north of the Leeward Islands reported winds gusts to 41 kt and gusts to 43 kt has been reported in the northern Leewards. See the Special Features section above for more information on this wave. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 18N, moving westward near 20 kt. No significant convection is noted over water. For information about the tropical wave crossing Central America, please read the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 21N16W and continues southwestward to 11N29W. The ITCZ extends from 12N31W to 11N37W and then from 09N40W to 07N47W and to 10N62W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present within 150 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1015 mb low pres south of the mouth of the Mississippi River is producing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the north-central Gulf waters. A surface trough is noted in the eastern Gulf, also supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. A weak high pressure system dominates the remainder of the basin. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are found in the north-central and eastern Gulf waters, especially east of 90W and eastern Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, some slow development of this system (aforementioned low pres) is possible during the next few days as it drifts westward across the northern Gulf. Regardless of development, mariners over the northern Gulf waters can expect thunderstorms with gusty winds and locally higher seas over the next few days. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will persist through the forecast period, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for rainfall information associated with a strong tropical wave moving across the northern Leeward Islands. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough is helping to enhance a few showers and isolated thunderstorms in the southwest Caribbean waters, especially off Panama. High pressure north of the islands sustains fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft in the central Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the aforementioned remnants of Dolly will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms, strong winds and rough seas today to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and nearby waters south of 23N, and then Hispaniola and SE Bahamas on Mon. Elsewhere, abundant tropical moisture and a deep-layer trough will aide in scattered thunderstorms W of 70W into early this week. To the east, the subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to locally strong off northern Hispaniola through tonight. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information about the strong tropical wave, remnants of Dolly, moving across the Leeward Islands. Abundant moisture, a surface trough and divergence aloft associated with an upper level trough over the eastern United States combine to generate numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms west of 70W. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning and higher seas near the strongest storms. Elsewhere, a broad subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Bahamas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the area, outside of the influence of the remnants of Dolly. However, fresh northerly winds and seas of 5-9 ft are found off Morocco and northern Mauritania. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned remnants of Dolly will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms, strong winds and rough seas today to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and nearby waters south of 23N, and then Hispaniola and SE Bahamas on Mon. Elsewhere, abundant tropical moisture and a deep- layer trough will aide in scattered thunderstorms W of 70W into early this week. To the east, the subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to locally strong off northern Hispaniola through tonight..