Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
977 AXNT20 KNHC 300431 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Aug 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Rainfall: Clusters of showers and thunderstorm continue in association with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, located along 59W-60W, moving westward around 20 kt. Satellite imagery tonight shows strong SW upper level wind shear continuing to impact this system, with the remnants of the low level center exposed to the west of most of the convection, and approaching the island of Barbuda at this time. A well defined middle level cyclonic circulation is farther east along 57W, and has spawned an area of scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection from 17N to 20.5N between 55.5W and 60W. Recent satellite scatterometer data suggests that there are no signs that the system is developing a closed circulation, but rather remains a sharp trough. Redevelopment of this system is unlikely while it moves westward to west-northwestward around 20 kt. The wave is expected to bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the adjacent waters over the next several days. Rainfall amounts and the location of the highest totals will vary from island to island, as local topography will enhance orographic lift and support the heaviest rainfall. Please refer to your local weather agency for specific rainfall forecasts for your local area. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 36W-37W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Isolated clusters of moderate convection are within 90 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is along 59W-60W, south of 21N, moving westward around 20 kt. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas are noted from 15N to 23N between 54W and 64W. See the Special Features section above for more information on this wave. A tropical wave is along 73W and extends from Dominican Republic to eastern Colombia, moving westward near 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring behind the wave across interior portions of Venezuela, while no significant convection is noted over water. A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean, along 83W, south of 15N, moving westward at 5 kt. The wave appears to be reorganizing while interacting with the monsoon trough in this area. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted over portions of Central America and adjacent tropical eastern Pacific waters from 04N to 10N between 78W and 85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W, and extends S-SW to near 10N24W. The ITCZ continues from 12N25W to 11N35W, then resumes from 08N40W to 06N49W to 11.5N59W. In addition to the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13.5N between 18W and 34W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm S and 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 40W and 55W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered moderate convection is occurring near a weak 1014 mb low pressure center over the N central Gulf near 28.5N88W. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere dotting the eastern Gulf waters E of 87W. A middle level trough and upper level diffluent pattern aloft supports this convective activity. A weak 1016 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf near 29N93W, and dominates the remainder of the basin. Under this pattern, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are occurring across the east and central Bay of Campeche, ahead of the typical thermal trough over the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, weak low pressure in the northern Gulf is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms E of 90W. Some slow development of this low is possible during the next few days as it drifts westward, although there is a low chance of tropical formation over the next seven days. Regardless of development, mariners over the northeast and north-central Gulf should expect active thunderstorms with gusty winds and locally higher seas into early next week. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas into into late next week. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for rainfall information associated with a strong tropical wave that will cross the northern Leeward Islands tonight and Sun. Atlantic high pressure continues a broad ridge along 35N extending westward to near 70W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a 1007 mb Colombian low supports fresh to strong trades offshore Colombia to 15N where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found elsewhere across the north- central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Squalls and showers ahead of the remnants of Dolly are moving across northern Leeward Islands and into the adjacent Caribbean waters. For the forecast, a strong tropical wave will cross the northern Leeward Islands tonight, then Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sun and Sun night, and Hispaniola Mon. This wave will bring strong to locally near gale force winds, rough seas, and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall across the islands and adjacent waters. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressure over South America will support strong trades and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean this weekend. These winds will diminish slightly early next week as the aforementioned tropical wave disrupts the pressure gradient. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information about the strong tropical wave, remnants of Dolly, that is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Abundant low level moisture continues to shift northwestward across the Bahamas and waters to the E and NE, and is interacting with a middle level trough extending from the eastern Gulf of America northeastward into the Atlantic. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring across the Bahamas N of 24N, between 70W and 80W, producing areas of strong gusty winds. The Atlantic ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters, anchored on a 1026 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores near 35N32W and extends a ridge westward along 35W to 70W. South of the ridge, fresh to strong winds associated with the remnants of Dolly prevail across the area S of 25N between 53W aND 67W. Elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh trade winds prevail S of 24N between 25W and 45W, while fresh NE winds are noted from 10N to 16N between 45W and 52W. Farther east, fresh to locally strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are evident N of 20N and E of 20N to the coast of W Africa, including the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, the ridge generally supports moderate to locally fresh winds easterly winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a strong tropical wave will cross the northern Leeward Islands tonight, then Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sun and Sun night, then Hispaniola on Mon. This wave will bring strong to locally near gale force winds, rough seas, and scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall to these islands and nearby waters S of 23N. Elsewhere, abundant tropical moisture and a deep- layer trough will aide in scattered thunderstorms W of 70W into early next week. To the east, the subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to locally strong off northern Hispaniola through Sun night.