Tropical Cyclone Discussion
616 WTPZ41 KNHC 300257 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 29 2026 The infrared satellite presentation of Karina has continued to improve tonight, with the center of circulation now located beneath a well-defined CDO with cloud top temperatures below -80 C. A recent GPM GMI microwave pass revealed a compact, but somewhat asymmetric center, with a slight lack of definition extending south and southwest of the center. Moderate southerly to southeasterly wind shear is also evident in the microwave imagery, with the mid-level center displaced slightly to the west and northwest of the low-level center. The latest intensity estimate from TAFB was 4.0/65 kt, while objective intensity estimates range from 52 to 66 kt. Based on the tilt in the vertical structure of the cyclone and the relatively wide range of intensity estimates, the initial intensity is maintained at 60 kt for this advisory. Karina is moving a little faster toward the west-northwest and is currently positioned between a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern United States and another area of high pressure to the northwest. A turn toward the west is expected Sunday into Monday as a strong upper-level low approaches the western U.S., weakening the aforementioned ridge over the Southwest. Karina will then be steered primarily by the ridge to the northwest. There is considerable spread in the track forecast guidance beyond 60 h, largely due to differences in the strength of the ridge that will guide the storm. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory through 48 h, but has been shifted to the left for the remainder of the forecast period. The updated forecast remains near the middle of the track guidance and close to the simple consensus. The strong tropical storm is moving over very warm waters of around 29 C in a relatively moist mid-level environment and favorable upper-level winds. Karina is forecast to steadily strengthen, although it should be noted that the ECMWF- and GFS-based SHIPS statistical guidance indicates a possibility of rapid intensification over the next 24 to 48 h. The latest forecast calls for Karina to become a hurricane later tonight and reach major hurricane strength early next week. This intensity forecast is near the higher end of the guidance envelope, but remains slightly below HCCA. After 72 h, Karina is expected to encounter increasingly dry air and cooler sea surface temperatures, which should promote gradual weakening through late next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 17.0N 120.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 17.3N 121.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 17.6N 123.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 17.8N 125.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 18.0N 126.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 18.7N 128.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 19.3N 130.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 20.7N 132.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 22.6N 134.8W 65 KT 75 MPH