Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
359 AXPZ20 KNHC 291554 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Aug 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 15.6N 117.6W at 29/1500 UTC, moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are around 32 ft (9.5 m). Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 14N to 16.5N between 117W and 121W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed elsewhere from 11N to 18N between 113W and 120W. Karina is moving toward the northwest, followed by a more westerly motion over the next day or two. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days. Karina is forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend and could become a major hurricane early next week. Swells generated by Karina will begin to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Karina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 12.8N 135.7W at 29/1500 UTC, moving west at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently around 12 ft (4 m). Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is seen 11N to 14N W of 135W. Lowell is moving toward the west. This general motion, along with a gradual increase in forward speed, is expected during the next several days. Gradual strengthening is expected during the weekend, and Lowell could become a hurricane by Monday or Monday night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: An area of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is located well to the south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next several of days while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 101W from 05N to 15N, moving quickly westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 10N to 14N between 98W AND 104W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N95W to 12N109W, and W of 11N140W. In addition to the convection near Karina, Lowell and the tropical wave, a cluster of moderate to strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 08N E of 81W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 03N to 06N W of 123W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Karina, and an area of disturbed weather with the potential of tropical cyclone formation. While the main impacts of Karina remain west of the Mexican offshore waters, strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas on the far northeast periphery of Karina are reaching the Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh to strong N gap winds are active across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, as noted in the latest scatterometer satellite pass. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas dominate the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will strengthen to a hurricane near 16.5N 119.0W this evening, move to 17.2N 120.8W Sun morning, 17.5N 122.6W Sun evening, 17.8N 124.4W Mon morning, 18.1N 125.9W Mon evening, and 18.7N 127.8W Tue morning. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.1N 130.4W early Wed. The strong to near-gale force SE winds and rough to very rough seas on the far northeast periphery of Karina will impact the waters around Clarion Island into Sun, then diminish through Mon as Karina continues to move W-NW and away from the area. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds and occasional rough seas will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will persist across the northern Gulf of California through Sun night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 10N92W, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the weekend into early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Associated moderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early next week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the monsoon trough. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Tropical Storm Karina, Tropical Storm Lowell, and an area of disturbed weather with the potential of tropical cyclone formation. The remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone Iselle has dissipated, leaving a trough over the NW corner of the forecast area that extends from 29N133W to 23N134W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are occurring W of the trough axis. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the open waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from the two tropical storms and the aforementioned trough. Rough seas generated by Karina cover the waters from 06N to 23N between 108W and 124W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will strengthen to a hurricane near 16.5N 119.0W this evening, move to 17.2N 120.8W Sun morning, 17.5N 122.6W Sun evening, 17.8N 124.4W Mon morning, 18.1N 125.9W Mon evening, and 18.7N 127.8W Tue morning. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.1N 130.4W early Wed. Tropical Storm Lowell will move to 12.8N 137.3W this evening, 12.8N 139.7W Sun morning, 12.8N 141.8W Sun evening, 12.9N 143.6W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 13.0N 145.2W Mon evening, and 13.1N 146.9W Tue morning. Lowell will change little in intensity as it moves to near 13.4N 149.4W early Wed. Seas 8 ft or greater generated by Karina will cover a large area by Sun morning, particularly from 08N to 27N between 110W and 129W.