Tropical Cyclone Discussion

612
WTPZ41 KNHC 291434
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
800 AM PDT Sat Aug 29 2026

The current structure of Karina shows that the mid-level center is 
displaced from the low-level center based on some of the more 
recent microwave imagery. This is also reflected in the satellite 
imagery as well with the bulk of the convection displayed to the 
north. The most recent TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate is T3.5/55 kt 
and the objective intensity estimates from UW-CMISS are in the 
range of 45-58 kt. As such, the initial intensity has been held at 
55 kt. 
 
The storm continues on a northwestward heading of about 320/10 kt,
driven by a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern United
States. The storm is expected to slow down and turn westward as a
mid-level trough to the north weakens this ridge, allowing for the
ridge over the central North Pacific to build southeastward and take
over as the primary steering flow. The current NHC track is very 
similar to the previous track except for a few nudges, and it 
closely follows the HCCA guidance.

The SHIPS guidance maintains a favorable environment for the 
cyclone to intensify for the next 60 h. With light wind shear, 
warm sea-surface temperatures, and plenty of moisture in the 
environment, the conditions are conducive for Karina to continue 
to intensify. Reaching major hurricane status remains possible for 
Karina given the environmental conditions, however the cyclone will 
need to become vertically aligned first. After this weekend, SHIPS 
diagnostics indicate that the environment will gradually become 
less favorable, which will lead to a slow weakening trend. The 
current NHC intensity forecast is close to the middle of the 
guidance. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 15.6N 117.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 16.5N 119.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 17.2N 120.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  31/0000Z 17.5N 122.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  31/1200Z 17.8N 124.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  01/0000Z 18.1N 125.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 18.7N 127.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z 20.1N 130.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  03/1200Z 21.5N 132.4W   60 KT  70 MPH