Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
421 AXPZ20 KNHC 290905 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Aug 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 14.7N 117.0W at 29/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are around 32 ft (9.5 m). Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm SE and 90 nm NW semicircles of center. Karina is moving toward the northwest, and this general motion is expected to continue over the next day or so, followed by a more westward turn. Karina is forecast to become a hurricane later today and could become a major hurricane on Sunday. Swells generated by Karina will begin to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 12.6N 134.8W at 29/0900 UTC, moving west at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently around 12 ft (4 m). Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 180 nm SW semicircle. Lowell is expected to continue to move westward and increase its forward speed through today. Lowell may gradually strengthen through Sun and could become a hurricane west of 140W by Monday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 100W from 05N to 15N, moving quickly westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 14N to 17N between 100W and 102W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N80W to 10N85W to 07N100W to 09N105W, and from 111N115W to 15N125W. In addition to the convection near Karina, Lowell and the tropical wave, numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is active from 06N to 12N between 85W and 105W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Karina. While the main impacts of Karina remain west of the Mexican offshore waters, strong to near- gale force winds and rough to very rough seas on the far northeast periphery of Karina are reaching across the Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh to strong N gap winds are active across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, as noted in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. The same pass also confirmed moderate to fresh SE winds across the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the strong to near-gale force SE winds and rough to very rough seas on the far northeast periphery of Karina will impact the waters around Clarion Island into Sun, then diminish through Mon as Karina continues to move W-NW and away from the area. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds and occasional rough seas will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will persist across the northern Gulf of California through late Sun. Looking ahead, another area of low pressure is forecast to form during the next day or two well to the south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while it moves west- northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 10N90W, with 6 to 8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the upcoming weekend into early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Associated moderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early next week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the monsoon trough. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Tropical Storm Karina and Tropical Storm Lowell. The remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone Iselle has dissipated, leaving a trough along 132W from 22N to 27N. Fresh winds and moderate to rough seas are occurring within 120 nm west of the trough. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the open waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from the two tropical storms. Rough seas generated by Karina cover the waters from 05N to 20N between 105W and 125W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, Karina will strengthen to a hurricane near 15.5N 118.4W this afternoon, move to 16.5N 120.3W Sun morning, 16.9N 122.0W Sun afternoon, 17.3N 123.8W Mon morning, 17.6N 125.4W Mon afternoon, and 18.1N 127.0W Tue morning. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to 19.3N 129.9W early Wed. Tropical Storm Lowell will move to 12.8N 136.3W this afternoon, 12.9N 139.0W Sun morning, then move west of 140W Sun afternoon. Lowell will continue to move west and strengthen to a hurricane near 13.1N 145.0W by Mon afternoon.