Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
421 AXPZ20 KNHC 281547 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Aug 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 13.2N 115.0W at 28/1500 UTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are around 18 ft (5.0 m). Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm of center. Karina is moving toward the northwest, and this general motion is expected to continue over the next day or so, followed by a more westward turn. Strengthening is forecast and Karina is likely to become a large hurricane well offshore of the coast of SW Mexico over the weekend. Swells generated by Karina will begin to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Karina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 12.5N 132.8W at 28/1500 UTC, moving north-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently around 11 ft (3.5 m). Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 120 nm W semicircle. Lowell is moving toward the north-northwest. A turn toward the west is expected by tomorrow, with that motion continuing into early next week. Strengthening is likely during the next several days, and Lowell is forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 94W north of 06N into SE Mexico, moving quickly westward at around 25 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 08N to 12N between 90W and 98W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 10N106W, and from 10N138W to 10N140W. In addition to the convection near Karina Lowell and the tropical wave, numerous moderate to strong convection is active from 03N to 07N E of 85W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N W of 116W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Karina. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas associated with the outer periphery of Karina are reaching the Revillagigedo Islands. Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate in the this area, and Tropical Storm conditions are possible tonight and Sat. Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds and slight seas are occurring. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina is near 13.2N 115.0W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Karina will move to 14.1N 116.0W this evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.6N 117.8W Sat morning, 16.7N 119.6W Sat evening, 17.6N 121.4W Sun morning, 18.0N 123.0W Sun evening, and 18.3N 124.7W Mon morning. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to near 19.1N 127.8W early Tue. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun with locally rough seas there at times, then pulsing to moderate to fresh thereafter. A surge of fresh to locally strong southeasterly winds is possible in the northern Gulf of California tonight through Sun night. Looking ahead, another area of low pressure is forecast to form this weekend well to the south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, possibly brining increasing winds and seas along a similar path to Karina. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 10N90W, with 6 to 8 ft seas there. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off Colombia and south of the Azuero Peninsula to about 03N. For the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the upcoming weekend into early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Associated moderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early next week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the monsoon trough. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Tropical Storm Karina and Tropical Storm Lowell. The remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone Iselle is near 24N130W with a central pressure of 1007 mb. Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas are occurring from 26N to 29N between 127W and 133W. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the open waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from the two tropical storms and Post-Tropical cyclone Iselle. Rough seas generated by Karina cover the waters from 04N to 18N between 105W and 118W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina is near 13.2N 115.0W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Karina will move to 14.1N 116.0W this evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.6N 117.8W Sat morning, 16.7N 119.6W Sat evening, 17.6N 121.4W Sun morning, 18.0N 123.0W Sun evening, and 18.3N 124.7W Mon morning. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to near 19.1N 127.8W early Tue. Tropical Storm Lowell is near 12.5N 132.8W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving north-northwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Lowell will move to 12.6N 133.1W this evening, 12.8N 134.3W Sat morning, 13.0N 135.6W Sat evening, 13.2N 137.5W Sun morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 13.5N 139.1W Sun evening, and 13.7N 140.9W Mon morning. Lowell will change little in intensity as it moves to near 14.2N 144.2W early Tue.