Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
322 AXNT20 KNHC 281543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Aug 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1543 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning: Tropical Storm Dolly no longer has a closed circulation and is now a tropical wave. Remnants of Dolly is centered near 15.0N 46.9W at 28/1500 UTC or 870 nm E of the Leeward Islands, moving W at 22 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. On the forecast track, the remnants should be nearing the Leeward Islands Saturday night and Sunday. The winds associated with the remnants of Dolly are expected to decrease below tropical-storm force on Saturday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml Heavy rains from the remnants of Dolly could affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday with possible impacts in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This heavy rain may produce flash flooding within areas of higher terrain of the Leeward Islands. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is depicted in association with this wave. A tropical wave is approaching the Leeward Islands and is along 60.5W, south of 21N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered showers are found over the Leeward Islands. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 21N, moving quickly westward at around 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near the northern portion of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 12N17W to 10N27W to 08N37W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 10N to 13N and east of 19W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak 1014 mb low pressure along with a surface trough has developed over the northern Gulf ahead of a stationary front over the southern and SE United States. This complex system continues to supports scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northern and eastern Gulf waters. Moderate easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are present in the Bay of Campeche, while a weak pressure gradient elsewhere maintains light to gentle winds and slight seas. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf waters into early next week, supporting moderate or lighter winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. A nearly- stationary front will meander near the northern Gulf waters during the next few days producing a few thunderstorms. Mariners can expect gusty winds and higher seas associated with the stronger thunderstorms. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge centered SW of the Azores supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean, Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Dolly no longer has a closed circulation and is now a tropical wave. At 11 AM EDT, the Remnants of Dolly are near 15.0N 46.9W, moving west at 22 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Dolly will move to 15.6N 50.3W this evening, 16.4N 54.7W Sat morning, and dissipate Sat evening. These remnants will bring gale conditions to Atlantic waters E of the Leeward Islands Saturday. Otherwise, high pressure north of the islands will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas across the south- central Caribbean through the weekend. Winds will diminish some early next week, before increasing again midweek as the ridge builds back in. Winds will freshen up in the eastern Caribbean early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on the remnants of Dolly centered well east of the Leeward Islands. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms dot the waters between Bermuda and the Greater Antilles, especially between 62W and 73W associated with an upper level low moving across the Bahamas. At the surface, a broad subtropical ridge supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across much of the SW North Atlantic. Aside from the winds associated with Tropical Storm Dolly, trades are moderate to locally fresh across the central and eastern tropical North Atlantic with moderate seas. However, a tighter pressure gradient sustains fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 4-8 ft north of 19N and east of 22W. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Dolly no longer has a closed circulation and is now a tropical wave. At 11 AM EDT, the Remnants of Dolly are near 15.0N 46.9W, moving west at 22 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Dolly will move to 15.6N 50.3W this evening and 16.4N 54.7W Sat morning. For waters N and E of the remnants of Dolly, the subtropical ridge will dominate the SW N Atlantic waters over the next several days supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to locally strong off northern Hispaniola at night.