Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
217 AXNT20 KNHC 281007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Aug 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0955 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Dolly is centered near 14.5N 44.8W at 28/0900 UTC or 990 nm E of the Leeward Islands, moving W at 21 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 15 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring within 90 NM of the center in the eastern semicircle. Dolly is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, this system, or its remnants, should be nearing the Leeward Islands this weekend. Little change in strength is likely during the next couple of days, and Dolly is forecast to degenerate into a tropical wave before it reaches the Leeward Islands. Heavy rain from Dolly could affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday, with rainfall moving into the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This heavy rain may produce flash flooding within areas of higher terrain of the Leeward Islands. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Dolly NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W, south of 19N, moving westward at about 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 58W, south of 21N, moving westward around 15 kt. No deep convection is noted in association with this system. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 21N, moving quickly westward at around 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near the northern portion of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W to 05N26W. The ITCZ continues from 08N44W to 07N56W. No deep convection is present near the monsoon trough and ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front over the southern and SE United States supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northern Gulf waters. Moderate easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are present in the eastern Bay of Campeche, while a weak pressure gradient elsewhere maintains light to gentle winds and slight seas. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf waters through the next several days, supporting moderate or lighter winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. A frontal boundary will meander near the northern Gulf waters during the next few days producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Mariners can expect gusty winds and higher seas associated with these storms. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge centered SW of the Azores supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the north- central and eastern Caribbean, Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure north of the islands will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas across the south- central Caribbean through the weekend. Winds will diminish some early next week, before increasing again midweek as the ridge builds back in. Winds will freshen up in the eastern Caribbean early next week. Tropical Storm Dolly is near 14.5N 44.8W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west at 21 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Dolly will move to 15.1N 48.3W this afternoon, 15.9N 52.8W Sat morning, become post-tropical and move to 16.6N 57.3W Sat afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 17.2N 61.4W Sun morning, 18.0N 64.5W Sun afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on the Tropical Storm Dolly centered well east of the Leeward Islands. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms dot the waters between Bermuda and the Greater Antilles, especially between 62W and 73W associated with an upper level low moving across the Bahamas. At the surface, a broad subtropical ridge supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across much of the SW North Atlantic. Aside from the winds associated with Tropical Storm Dolly, trades are moderate to locally fresh across the central and eastern tropical North Atlantic with moderate seas. However, a tighter pressure gradient sustains fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 4-8 ft north of 19N and east of 21W. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will dominate the SW N Atlantic waters over the next several days supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and mainly moderate seas. Winds will pulse to locally strong off northern Hispaniola at night. Tropical Storm Dolly is near 14.5N 44.8W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west at 21 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Dolly will move to 15.1N 48.3W this afternoon, 15.9N 52.8W Sat morning, become post- tropical and move to 16.6N 57.3W Sat afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 17.2N 61.4W Sun morning, 18.0N 64.5W Sun afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning.