Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
490 AXPZ20 KNHC 280826 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Aug 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0820 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 12.7N 114.3W at 28/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are around 15 ft (4.5 m). Numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms extend 240 nm in the NW and 120 nm SE semicircles. Karina is moving toward the west- northwest and this general motion is expected to continue over the next several days, reaching its closest point of approach to Clarion Island late Fri night into early Sat. Strengthening is anticipated, and Karina is forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend. Swells generated by Tropical Storm Karina will begin to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Karina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 11.7N 133.0W at 28/0900 UTC, moving east-northeast at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently around 11 ft (3.5 m). Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 270 nm in the SW semicircle and 120 nm in the NE semicircle. Lowell is moving toward the east-northeast, with a westward motion expected by Saturday. Strengthening is likely during the next several days, and Lowell could become a hurricane by Sunday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 92W north of 06N into Chiapas, moving quickly westward at around 25 kt. Any nearby convection is described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 09N107W, and from 12N118W to 13N130W to 10N140W. In addition to the convection near Karina and Lowell, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 05N to 115N between 85W and 120W, and from 05N to 12N between 130W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Karina. Winds are increasing along with building seas just south of the Revillagigedo Islands ahead of T.S. Karina. Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas persist elsewhere over the offshore waters of Mexico. For the forecast, Karina will move to 13.6N 115.5W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.1N 116.9W Sat morning, 16.5N 118.9W Sat afternoon, 17.5N 120.7W Sun morning, 18.2N 122.5W Sun afternoon, and 18.4N 124.2W Mon morning. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to 19.3N 127.3W early Tue. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun with locally rough seas there at times, then pulsing to moderate to fresh thereafter. A surge of fresh to locally strong southeasterly winds is possible associated with convective complexes may move up the central and northern Gulf of California both tonight and Sat nights. Looking ahead, another area of low pressure is forecast to form this weekend well to the south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while it moves west- northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, possibly brining increasing winds and seas along a similar path to Karina. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly gap winds persist the Gulf of Papagayo downwind to near 10N90W, with 5 to 7 ft seas there. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off Colombia and in the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the upcoming weekend into early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Associated moderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early next week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the monsoon trough. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about recently upgraded Tropical Storm Karina and Tropical Storm Lowell. The remnant 1007 mb low of Post-Tropical Iselle is near 24N130W with fresh to strong winds around rough seas within 180 nm in the northwest quadrant of the low. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the open waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from the two tropical storms and Post- Tropical Iselle. Rough seas in mainly SW swell surround Karina covering the waters south of 16N between 105W and 120W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will move to 13.6N 115.5W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.1N 116.9W Sat morning, 16.5N 118.9W Sat afternoon, 17.5N 120.7W Sun morning, 18.2N 122.5W Sun afternoon, and 18.4N 124.2W Mon morning. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to 19.3N 127.3W early Tue. Tropical Storm Lowell will move to 12.1N 132.8W this afternoon, 12.3N 133.6W Sat morning, 12.5N 134.8W Sat afternoon, 12.7N 136.4W Sun morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 12.9N 138.1W Sun afternoon, and 13.1N 139.8W Mon morning. Lowell will change little in intensity as it moves west of 140W late Mon. The remnant low of Iselle will open up into a trough late today while remnant winds and seas persist as it shifts west- northwest to 140W where it will reach by the end of the weekend. Looking ahead, much larger and more expansive southwesterly swell may impact the southern waters by early next week. Also, another area of low pressure is forecast to form this weekend well to the south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while it moves west- northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, possibly brining increasing winds and seas along a similar path to Karina.