Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
692 AXNT20 KNHC 280504 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Aug 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Dolly is centered near 13.8N 42.3W at 28/0300 UTC or 1140 nm E of the Leeward Islands, moving W at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 12 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring within 90 NM of the center in the northern semicircle. A fast westward motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, this system should be nearing the Leeward Islands this weekend. Little change in strength is likely during the next 48 hours, and Dolly is forecast to degenerate into a tropical wave before it reaches the Leeward Islands. Heavy rain from Dolly could affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday, with rainfall moving into the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This heavy rain may produce flash flooding within areas of higher terrain of the Leeward Islands. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Dolly NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas to locally very rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through early next week. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight off Colombia. The ASCAT scatterometer passes around 0130 UTC showed peak winds of near gale at 12N75W. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 25W, south of 20N over the Cabo Verde Islands while moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-13N between 24W-29W. A new tropical wave was introduced in Atlantic approaching the Lesser Antilles along 57W south of 20N. It is likely moving westward around 15 kt. No deep convection is noted in association with this system. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean along 71W, south of 19N from Hispaniola to Venezuela. It is quickly moving westward at around 20 kt. No significant convection is observed with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits West Africa from the Senegal coast near 14N17W and extends southwestward to 10N24W. The ITCZ starts at 09N36W to 07N58W along the coast of Guyana. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-13N between 24W-29W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak 1015 mb high is centered over the central Gulf near 25N89W. Winds across the Gulf are moderate or weaker with seas 1-3 ft. Isolated moderate convection is noted north of 24N east of 90W. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf waters through the next several days, supporting moderate or lighter winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. A frontal boundary will meander near the northern Gulf waters during the next few days producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Mariners can expect gusty winds and higher seas associated with these storms. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the waters off Colombia. Other than the gale winds just north of Colombia for a few more hours, fresh to near gale trades are occurring over the central Caribbean with seas 6-11 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 3-5 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of 12N west of 80W, associated with the eastern extent of the northeast Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas to locally very rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through early next week. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight off Colombia. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong in the Windward Passage at night. Tropical Storm Dolly is near 13.8N 42.3W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving west at 20 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Dolly will move to 14.3N 45.7W Fri morning, 15.2N 50.2W Fri evening, 16.0N 54.7W Sat morning, become post- tropical and move to 16.7N 59.0W Sat evening, weaken to a remnant low near 17.0N 63.0W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun evening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on the Tropical Storm Dolly. Aside from the winds associated with Tropical Storm Dolly, the trades are moderate or weaker across the tropical North Atlantic except for fresh to locally strong N along Western Sahara and Mauritania. Seas are 3-7 ft across forecast waters. A weak surface trough extends from 28N67W to 31N65W and is associated with isolated moderate convection north of 22N between 61W-70W. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will dominate the SW N Atlantic waters over the next several days supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong off northern Hispaniola at night. Tropical Storm Dolly is near 13.8N 42.3W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving west at 20 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Dolly will move to 14.3N 45.7W Fri morning, 15.2N 50.2W Fri evening, 16.0N 54.7W Sat morning, become post-tropical and move to 16.7N 59.0W Sat evening, weaken to a remnant low near 17.0N 63.0W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun evening.