Tropical Cyclone Discussion

146
WTPA42 PHFO 280238
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  63
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Thu Aug 27 2026
 
Lala is still maintaining some limited deep convection, with cloud 
tops to near -50C, mainly over the southern portion of the 
circulation.  Thus, the system barely qualifies as a tropical 
cyclone although the organization of the convection is marginal.  
Dvorak classifications are T2.0 and T1.5.  A couple of fairly 
recent scatterometer passes indicated that the maximum winds have 
decreased to around 35 kt.  Given the vertical wind shear, dry air 
entrainment, and the cyclone being over cold water, the convection 
should mostly dissipate within the next 12 hours or so  and it is 
unlikely to return.  Therefore, Lala is expected to become a 
post-tropical cyclone by 12 hours.
 
The initial motion remains about the same, or about 335/4 kt. 
A turn toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected during the 
next day or so as Lala becomes embedded in the flow between a 
low-level ridge to the north and a western Pacific tropical cyclone 
approaching from the south.  This general motion should continue 
until the system dissipates. The new forecast track is similar to 
the previous NHC prediction but a little faster in 36 to 48 hours. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 37.8N 179.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 38.2N 179.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  29/0000Z 38.6N 178.9E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/1200Z 39.4N 176.8E   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/0000Z 41.3N 174.6E   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED